【英语中国】中国购买日本国债提振日本债市

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2010-7-7 15:34

小艾摘要: China's increased buying of mostly short-term Japanese government debt 'at the least has been a supporting factor for the market today,' said Katsutoshi Inadome, a fixed income strategist at Mitsub ...
China's increased buying of mostly short-term Japanese government debt 'at the least has been a supporting factor for the market today,' said Katsutoshi Inadome, a fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

'There were a lot of people looking to buy JGBs in the morning, so the news encouraged them to go ahead and do so,' said Mr. Inadome, speaking to Market Talk.

But the bump from China's ramped up buying is unlikely to continue supporting the market in months ahead unless purchases expand out of short-dated maturities, Mr. Inadome said.

'They still haven't bought much in the longer-end, with a comparatively small level of purchases of maturities greater than two years, so whether they expand their buying beyond of the short-end will be crucial,' Mr. Inadome said.

Nonetheless, China's buying highlights the possibility that the country could eventually help the JGB market move toward a more diversified base, Mr. Inadome says.

'The consensus view is that in five or ten years, it's going to be more difficult for Japanese government debt issuance to be fully absorbed by domestic buyers, so if China continues to increase its buying, that could lead to a sense of security for the market,' said Mr. Inadome.

Lead September JGB futures were last down 0.03 at 141.54, after a slightly weak 10-year auction result.

China's government is unlikely to make significant changes to its current Foreign-Exchange reserves policy, which are mostly focused on holdings of large amounts of U.S. Treasurys, says Duncan Wooldridge, a UBS economist.

Following today's news China increased Japanese government bond holdings in January-April, he notes U.S. bond market remains the only one with enough size and liquidity to absorb China's massive holdings.

'I've seen rather ominous comments about China diversifying away from this or that currency (but) the core of their policy has to be to hold US Treasurys,' said Mr. Wooldridge. The dollar was recently at ¥87.63, bouncing from an intraday low at ¥87.38.

中国提高了日本国债的购买量,其中主要是短期国债。三菱日联-摩根士丹利证券公司(Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities)固定收益策略师稻留克俊(Katsutoshi Inadome)说,这至少是今天市场的一个支撑因素。

稻留克俊对道琼斯通讯社市场快讯(Market Talk)栏目说,早盘有很多人希望买进日本国债,上述消息鼓励他们采取了实际行动。

但稻留克俊说,在未来几个月,如果中国提高购买量不扩大到短期国债以外的其他品种,那么就不太可能继续对市场形成支撑。

稻留克俊说,中国对更长期品种仍然没有买进多少,期限超过两年的品种购买量相对较少,所以是否扩大到短期品种以外将会至关重要。

但稻留克俊说,中国的买入突出了这样一种可能,即中国最终有可能帮助日本国债市场拥有一个更加多样化的投资者基础。

稻留克俊说,普遍观点是,经过五年或10年,日本政府发行的债券将更加难以被国内买家完全消化,所以如果中国继续增加购买量,那么市场就有望获得一种安全感。

9月份到期的日本国债期货基准合约最新报141.54,下跌0.03点,受到10年期国债拍卖结果略显疲软影响。

瑞银(UBS)经济学家伍德里奇(Duncan Wooldridge)说,中国政府当前的外汇政策主要着眼于大规模持有的美国国债,这种政策不太可能出现较大变动。

他提醒注意,中国1至4月份增加日本国债持有量的消息于今天传出之后,美国国债市场仍然是唯一一个规模和流动性足以吸纳中国巨额储备的国债市场。

伍德里奇说,我已经注意到一些人危言耸听地说,说中国要抛出这种或那种货币换成其他货币,但他们政策的核心必须是持有美国国债。美元兑日圆最新报87.63,较盘中低点87.38反弹。

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