【英语中国】押注:中国何时超越美国?

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2011-2-16 23:42

小艾摘要: To the numerous ways investors can get exposure to China’s supercharged growth, here’s another: betting when it’ll elbow the US aside to become the world’s largest economy.That’s the offer Ladbro ...
To the numerous ways investors can get exposure to China’s supercharged growth, here’s another: betting when it’ll elbow the US aside to become the world’s largest economy.

That’s the offer Ladbrokes rolled out on Monday, the day that economic data from Japan confirmed that China had overtaken its neighbour to become the world’s second-largest economy in dollar terms in 2010. The British bookmaker is offering punters odds of 6/4 on China’s surpassing the US to become the world’s biggest economy before 2020, which means that if you were to bet £10 and it happened you’d get back the £10 stake plus an extra £15. In other words, a return of 150 per cent. Even over nine years, those sound pretty good odds. In fact, China is closer than you think for Ladbrokes’ purposes, because the bookmaker is using a measure of gross domestic product that takes into account the costs of living in each country. The measure is known as purchasing power parity and one economist in the US who used it last year said China had already overtaken the US. Arvind Subramanian estimated that China’s economy grew to $14,800bn in 2010, compared with $14,600bn in the US. But this has been disputed by other economists. According to the IMF, China’s 2010 GDP was only $10,100bn in PPP terms. Ladbrokes says it is expected that “the Chinese economy will conquer the world with a net value of over $25,000bn” before the end of the decade. In nominal terms, which is the measure by which China just overtook Japan, China’s GDP in 2010 was $5,879bn, compared with $5,474bn for its neighbour. But that’s a long way off the size of the US economy, which was around $14,600bn last year. When beyondbrics asked if Ladbrokes had calculated its odds based on serious economic analysis, Alex Donohue, a spokesman, said: “Oh yes, it took them the best part of the morning.” Then, not wanting to seem glib, he quickly pointed out that is a long time compared to the few minutes it can take to calculate odds on a football match, where the bookies already know the subject inside out. He also stressed that the novelty and speciality betting division of Ladbrokes’ “odds compiling team” included people who’d studied economics and worked in the City. On closer inspection the bookie is not making a big call anyway. The odds on China surpassing the US between 2020 and 2022 are 7/4 – and they’re the same for it happening after 2023. From a £10 bet, that would return £27.50, compared with £25 from the alternative odds – a small difference. Donohue said “there wasn’t a standout opinion” on when China would reach the top spot. “It is a cautious approach?...?but when the market is live and money starts to come in, the odds will change.”

投资者已经可以通过很多途径获得对中国迅猛增长的敞口,现在又多了一条:押注于中国何时将超越美国,成为全球最大经济体。

这是英国博彩公司立博(Ladbrokes)周一推出的产品,当天日本公布的经济数据证实,按美元计算,中国在2010年已超越日本,成为全球第二大经济体。

立博向博彩者提供6/4的赔率,打赌中国将在2020年之前超越美国,成为全球最大经济体。这意味着如果你押上10英镑,而此事成真的话,除了收回自己的10英镑赌注外,你还能得到额外的15英镑。

换句话说,回报率达到150%。即便需要9年时间,这听上去也是不错的赔率。事实上,按照立博的定义,中国与美国之间的差距小于你的印象,因为这家博彩公司采用的国内生产总值(GDP)衡量标准考虑到了各国的生活成本。

这种衡量标准被称之为购买力平价(purchasing power parity, PPP) 。采用这种方法的一位美国经济学家去年表示,中国已经超越了美国。阿文德?萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)估计,2010年中国经济规模已增至14.8万亿美元,而美国经济规模达到14.6万亿美元。但其他经济学家对这一结果表示异议。

根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据,按购买力平价计算,中国在2010年的GDP仅为10.1万亿美元。

立博预计“中国经济将征服世界,(在2020年之前)达到逾25万亿美元的净值”。

按名义价值计算——中国超过日本就是按照这种衡量标准计算得出的——中国2010年的GDP达到了5.879万亿美元,高于日本的5.474万亿美元,但与美国去年的经济规模(14.6万亿美元)相比,还有很长一段距离。

当beyondbrics询问立博是否在严肃经济分析的基础上计算其赔率时,该公司发言人亚历克斯?多诺霍(Alex Donohue)表示:“哦,是啊,他们差不多花了整整一个上午。”

然后,他显然不想表现得过于肤浅,于是很快指出,相比该公司花几分钟时间计算一场足球赛的赔率(博彩庄家对这个主题早已了如指掌),这可谓是一段相当长的时间。他还强调,立博公司新颖及特色博彩部门的“赔率编制组”成员包括曾攻读经济学和在伦敦金融城工作的人士。

进一步深入观察就会发现,这家博彩公司并没有做出什么惊人预测。中国在2020年至2022年超越美国所对应的赔率为7/4——这种情况在2023年后发生的赔率也一样。如果押上10英镑的赌注,回报将是27.50英镑,与前文提到的25英镑相差不大。

多诺霍表示,对于中国将在何时成为全球最大经济体,“并不存在任何突出的观点”。“这是一种审慎的方式……但是,当市场活起来、资金开始涌入时,赔率将会发生变化。”

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