【英语中国】香港航运量下滑 可能打击FedEx业务

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2011-9-22 12:35

小艾摘要: For transport stocks, the latest news from Hong Kong stinks.The Asian port city, whose name means 'fragrant harbor' in Chinese, is a key global gateway between East and West. That is why investors kee ...
For transport stocks, the latest news from Hong Kong stinks.

The Asian port city, whose name means 'fragrant harbor' in Chinese, is a key global gateway between East and West. That is why investors keep a close eye on Hong Kong airfreight volumes, which serve as a barometer of global trade activity and growth prospects. For the two major airfreight shipping companies, FedEx and United Parcel Service, these cargo volumes also are a direct read on business activity.

The message from recently released August figures is pretty clear: Activity is slowing. Hong Kong airfreight tonnage volumes were down 7.8% year-on-year, compared with most analysts' expectations for a small increase. Europe, North America and Japan all posted double-digit-percentage declines in cargo traffic compared with a year earlier, according to the Hong Kong International Airport. The results were 'a significant miss to the downside,' said Avondale Partners in a client note. For shareholders of FedEx, which reports fiscal first-quarter earnings Thursday, 'this is not good news,' the firm noted.

Of course, it never is wise to read too much into any one-month decline. And after a 23% slump since July, Avondale emphasizes that FedEx's shares, trading at just 10 times estimated 2012 earnings, seem a bargain. Moreover, the company's latest results still are expected to look strong: Analysts forecast earnings of $1.47 a share for the August quarter, up from $1.20 a year earlier. It is worth noting, however, that FedEx's earnings have come up short of analysts' estimates in three of the past four quarters.

And it isn't so much the company's August quarter as its prospects going forward that will be the focus Thursday. At a recent investor conference, rival UPS expressed a cautious view about the strength of demand in coming months. That prompted many analysts to pare back their earnings estimates for both companies. According to R.W. Baird analyst Jon Langenfeld, airfreight weakness has continued into September, casting doubt on the strength of the holiday shipping season.

Any slowing certainly will mean headaches for FedEx, where international airfreight is its highest margin business. FedEx managed to increase volumes in this division even as Hong Kong freight activity began slowing this spring. But it can defy gravity only so long.

Kelly Evans

对运输类股来说,来自香港的最新消息实在太糟糕了。

FedEx /Bloomberg News
香港是东西方之间的全球交通要道。正因为如此,投资者会密切关注作为全球贸易活动和增长前景晴雨表的香港航空货运量。对于两大航空货运公司联邦快递集团(FedEx)和联合包裹运送服务公司(United Parcel Service)来说,香港航空货运量也是衡量商业活动的一个直接指标。

最近公布的8月份数据显示出来的信息很清楚:商业活动在放缓。香港航空货运量同比下滑7.8%,而大部分分析人士的预期是出现小幅增长。据香港国际机场的数据,欧洲、北美和日本的航空货运量与去年同期相比均出现两位数的百分比降幅。美国投资公司Avondale Partners在客户报告中说,这是很大幅度的下滑。该公司说,对于FedEx的股东来说,这不是好消息。FedEx将于周四公布第一财季收益。

当然,过分看重任何单月下滑从来都不是明智之举。而且Avondale强调说,自较7月下滑了23%以来,目前市盈率只有10倍(根据2012年预期收益)的FedEx看来价格很低。此外,预计该公司的最新收益看起来仍会较强劲:分析人士预测8月份的一个季度每股收益为1.47美元,较去年同期的1.20美元有所上升。不过,值得注意的是,过去四个季度中,有三个季度FedEx的收益都不及分析人士的预期。

此外,周四收益报告的重点与其说是8月份一个季度的收益,还不如说是公司未来的前景。在最近的一次投资者会议上,竞争对手UPS表达了对未来几个月需求形势的谨慎看法。这令很多分析师下调了对这两家公司的收益预期。据美国投资研究公司贝雅(R.W. Baird)分析师朗根费尔德(Jon Langenfeld)说,航空运输业的疲弱走势持续到9月份,为假期运输季的强劲与否梦上了阴影。

运输业出现任何放缓无疑对FedEx来说都是头痛事。国际航空运输是FedEx利润率最高的业务。在今年春季香港航运活动开始放缓之际,FedEx的国际航空货运量却出现增长。不过,FedEx的逆市增长也只能到此结束了。

Kelly Evans

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)

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