【英语中国】热钱流出中国

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2011-11-22 09:51

小艾摘要: More signs of bearish sentiment on China, this time from cross border capital flows.Data released Monday showed China's banks were net sellers of foreign currency in October. That's unusual because Ch ...
More signs of bearish sentiment on China, this time from cross border capital flows.

Data released Monday showed China's banks were net sellers of foreign currency in October. That's unusual because China's trade surplus, combined with inflows of direct investment, mean the mainland's banks are almost always net buyers of foreign currency.

Indeed, the numbers normally suggest that in addition to the trade surplus, banks are buying up speculative capital flowing into the economy. Monday's numbers suggest that speculative capital might now be exiting China. That makes sense given diminished expectations of yuan appreciation, falling property prices and a deepening crisis in Europe pushing investors away from risky positions.

A comparison with past occasions when hot money has flowed out of China provides little reassurance. Netting out the trade surplus from banks' foreign exchange purchases gives a rough approximation of the scale and direction of capital flows. The last time it turned negative was in May 2010, when fears of a double dip downturn were on the rise. The time before: the eve of the financial crisis in August 2008.

越来越多的迹象表明,投资者日益看空中国。跨境资本流动就是其中之一。

周一公布的数据表明,10月份中国的银行是外汇的净卖出方,这种情形相当不同寻常。因为中国拥有巨大的贸易盈余,再加上直接投资带来的资本流入,这意味着中国的银行差不多应该一直是外汇的净买入方。

实际上,正常状况下,此类数据表明除了贸易盈余之外,银行还在买入流入到中国的投机资本。周一公布的数据表明,投机资本可能正在撤出中国。鉴于人民币大幅升值的可能性越来越低,房地产价格下跌,以及不断加深的欧债危机令投资者远离高风险投资,投机资本的这一动作不无道理。

与过去热钱流出中国的情形两相比较得出的结果并不能令人心安。把贸易盈余从银行购入的外汇中除去之后,大致就可以看出资本流动的规模和方向。上一次资本流出中国的情形出现在2010年5月,当时对于全球经济二次探底的担忧正愈演愈烈。再往前一次,就是2008年金融危机前夕了。

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