【英语中国】中国1月新增贷款低于预期

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2012-2-13 17:43

小艾摘要: China's banks normally start the New Year with a bang. This year it was more of a whimper.New loans of 738.1 billion yuan ($117 billion) in January 2012 came in significantly below a consensus forecas ...
China's banks normally start the New Year with a bang. This year it was more of a whimper.

New loans of 738.1 billion yuan ($117 billion) in January 2012 came in significantly below a consensus forecast of 1 trillion yuan, and a haul of 1.04 trillion yuan in the same month last year.

The Chinese New Year was a factor, translating into fewer working days for banks to actually make loans. But it isn't like the celebrations came as a surprise: Forecasts took account of the holiday and were still way too high. And in 2009, China's banks disbursed 1.6 trillion yuan of loans in January, despite Chinese New Year falling in the same month that year. When the need is there, having fewer working days is no barrier to lending.

The tentative conclusion to draw is that the government is targeting a lower total for new loans in 2012. Forecasts for the loan quota have ranged from 7.5 to 8.5 trillion yuan, compared to new loans of 7.5 trillion in 2011. January's showing suggests a number at the lower end of that range is likely.

On the plus side, weak lending in the opening month of the year shows China's government is in no rush to loosen policy, suggesting Beijing is not overly concerned about growth prospects. Those worried about China's burgeoning credit levels will also be pleased by lower loan growth.

But for China's liquidity addicted equity markets, which enjoyed a strong run in the opening weeks of the year, it might mean the party ends early this year.

中资银行在新年之始通常都是劲头十足,然而今年它们却满腹牢骚。

2012年1月份新增贷款为人民币7,381亿元(约合1,170亿美元),远远低于1万亿元的普遍预期,较上年同期的1.04万亿元大幅下降。

春节是一个因素,因为它导致银行实际用于放贷的工作日减少。但春节的到来并非人们意料之外的因素:预测已经考虑到了春节假期的因素,结果还是比实际数字高出许多。而且2009年春节同样是在公历1月份,当月中资银行发放的贷款达人民币1.6万亿元。当需求存在时,工作日减少并不是放贷的障碍。

由此得出一个初步结论:政府调低了2012年新增贷款总额目标。相比2011年7.5万亿元的新增贷款,2012年全年贷款指标的预测数字一直是在7.5万亿元到8.5万亿元之间。1月份的数字说明,实际的新增贷款指标可能位于这个区间的低端。

好的一面在于,开年第一个月贷款不旺说明中国政府不急于放松政策,进而说明北京并不过分担心增长前景。而忧心于中国信贷水平膨胀的人们,也会因为贷款增长减速而感到满意。

但对于依赖流动性的中国股市(开年几周曾有强劲表现)来说,这可能意味着今年的盛宴提早结束。

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