【英语中国】中国楼市开始反弹 力度仍然不足

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2012-7-19 22:31

小艾摘要: There's more evidence of a turning point in China's property sector. But developers won't rush to start new projects just yet.June's property data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows prices r ...
There's more evidence of a turning point in China's property sector. But developers won't rush to start new projects just yet.

June's property data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows prices rising 0.02% month-over-month, the first increase since September 2011.

That jibes with numbers from private property agency Soufun, which also showed a turnaround in prices in June. It reflects a creeping increase in sales, which have been improving steadily since February.

In 2009, the last time a slowdown in overall economic growth forced the government to abandon its controls on real estate, the turnaround in property prices triggered a rapid rebound in investment by developers keen to cash in.

This time it might take a little longer.

For starters, inventory levels are high. Property already under construction is equal to 3.7 times total sales in 2011. Developers will want to clear some of that overhang before breaking ground on new projects.

Also, though policy controls are not as restrictive as they were at the start of the year, the government is not about to allow another binge of speculative purchases. Earlier this month, Premier Wen Jiabao was promising 'unflinching' and 'long-term' controls on speculators.

Finally, there has been no surge in new loans like the one that funded the rapid turnaround in investment in 2009. In the first half of that year, new loans tripled on-year. In the first half of 2012, they grew only 16%.

Rising sales and prices will put a floor under falling investment, so China's property sector should not be a drag on growth in the second half. But it won't be a major boost to the economy either.

又有证据表明中国楼市的拐点正在到来,但开发商暂时不会匆忙开建新的项目。

国家统计局发布的数据显示,6月份房价环比上涨0.02%。这是2011年9月份以来首次上涨。

民间房地产中介搜房网(Soufun)的数据也显示6月份房价出现反弹。房价反弹是房屋销量缓慢上升的反映。从今年2月份以来,房屋销售状况就一直在稳步改善。

2009年,也就是上一次政府因为经济增长整体减速而被迫放弃房地产调控的时候,房价的回升刺激急于从中获利的开发商增加投资,投资数额迅速反弹。

这一次可能需要更长时间才能看到投资反弹。

首先是库存水平高。已经在建的房屋达到了2011年总销量的3.7倍,开发商将会先清理掉一部分库存,然后再开建新楼盘。

其次,虽然政策调控没有年初那么严厉,但政府不会允许再出现一轮投机性购房热潮。本月早些时候,国务院总理温家宝还在承诺要“坚定不移”地抑制房地产投机,并将这作为一项“长期”政策。

最后,新增贷款并没有像2009年那样急剧增加,当年新增贷款的飙升为迅速反弹的投资提供了资金。2009年上半年,新增贷款达到上年同期的三倍;而2012年上半年,新增贷款只同比增加了16%。

房屋销量和价格的上升会阻止投资下滑,所以中国房地产行业应该不会拖累下半年的经济增长。但它也不会给经济带来重大提振。

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