【英语中国】美国导弹防御计划加剧中国担心

  • A+
所属分类:双语中国

2012-8-28 23:31

小艾摘要: The U.S. decision to expand its missile-defense shield in the Asia-Pacific region, ostensibly to defend against North Korea, could feed Chinese fears about containment by the U.S. and encourage Beijin ...
The U.S. decision to expand its missile-defense shield in the Asia-Pacific region, ostensibly to defend against North Korea, could feed Chinese fears about containment by the U.S. and encourage Beijing to accelerate its own missile program, analysts say.

The new effort, which includes the deployment of an early-warning radar system, known as X-Band, in Japan - and possibly another in Southeast Asia - reflects America's deepening military and security engagement in the region after a decade focused on the Middle East and Afghanistan.

China's official response has been relatively muted so far. Zhu Feng, a leading Chinese security expert at Beijing University, said the U.S. announcement is 'more likely to speed up an arms race.'

A senior U.S. official acknowledged that the Pentagon faces a hard sell convincing China's People's Liberation Army that the missile-defense architecture isn't designed to encircle them. 'It sure looks like containment,' the official said.

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the missile defenses aren't directed at containing China.

At a news conference Friday, Japan's defense minister Satoshi Morimoto confirmed that Tokyo and Washington 'have had various discussions over missile defenses, including how to deploy the U.S.'s X-Band radar system.' He added the government needed 'a little more time' before disclosing details.

The news of the U.S. plans, reported in The Wall Street Journal earlier this week, strikes a nerve in a region concerned about the growing assertiveness of China.

Many in Japan feel the nation should beef up its own defense capability and strengthen cooperation with the U.S. in the face of China's military expansion and North Korea's nuclear ambitions. India is alarmed about China expanding its naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Vietnam, meanwhile, is building stronger ties with the U.S. Navy, while the Philippines, too, is reviving its security relationship with Washington amid a series of territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.

However, security analysts say the strategy risks further antagonizing Chinese leaders, who are already under pressure from vocal nationalists to defend the country's strategic interests.

'China will make a meal of this politically. To them it underscores their propaganda points about the pivot to Asia revealing America's Cold War mentality, that its purpose is to contain China,' said Carl Thayer, an Asian security expert at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.

China's Ministry of National Defense hasn't commented directly on the antimissile plans, but Thursday sounded a cautious note, saying, 'China has always believed that antimissile issues should be handled with great discretion, from the perspective of protecting global strategic stability.' China's Foreign Ministry separately echoed the sentiment.

China is developing sophisticated new missiles, including those potentially capable of striking U.S. aircraft carriers operating in the Asia-Pacific. Those efforts are in part aimed at denying regional access to the U.S., which could complicate Washington's efforts to defend Taiwan in the event of a conflict.

Analysts say China may now be tempted to churn full speed ahead with this program in an effort to overwhelm an enhanced missile defense with firepower.

'Attempting to overcome this reality would risk entering the U.S. into a race that it could not afford to wage, let alone win,' wrote China security analysts Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins in a commentary for The Wall Street Journal.

The senior U.S. official said that while the system could be overwhelmed by a large-scale Chinese attack, U.S. missile-interceptors guided by the X-Bands could repulse a more limited strike, protecting U.S. bases and ships. 'You don't need to be 100% effective in order to create a situation where the other guy has to change his calculus,' the U.S. official said.

Japan has mixed emotions about the nation's defense and its long-standing security alliance with the U.S. Finding a home for the X-Band radar won't be easy because of the growing grass-root opposition to the American military presence in Japan.

Japan already hosts an X-Band radar in the northern prefecture of Aomori. At the time it was installed in 2006, it faced concerns from local residents who feared presence of the radar would make them a target for potential enemy attacks. Others were opposed to the arrival of more U.S. personnel to man the facility.

The Pentagon says North Korea is the immediate threat driving decision-making on missile defense.

South Korea's Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the missile-defense plans, which follow a provocative rocket test launch by Pyongyang in April. The rocket, which the North Koreans said would deploy a satellite into space, crashed minutes after takeoff.

Pyongyang previously launched long-range missiles in 2006 and 2009, both of which also crashed soon after takeoff. U.S. intelligence agencies have long held that North Korea could have a missile capable of reaching the U.S. as early as 2015 or 2016.

Some U.S. defense officials have said a third X-Band radar could be positioned in the Philippines, which would potentially help Washington and its allies more accurately track ballistic missiles launched from North Korea and part of China.

Raul Hernandez, assistant secretary at the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs, said the Philippines hasn't been approached by the U.S. over basing an early-warning radar station there.

Some analysts warn that the U.S. plan may further destabilize a region that faces volatile territorial disputes, competition for resources and growing nationalism.

It may also force governments in the region to make uncomfortable choices. Sumathy Permal, a senior researcher at the Centre for Maritime Security and Diplomacy at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia, said that Malaysia values close ties with both the U.S. and China. 'Malaysia may not want to upset either,' she wrote in an email.

Lora Saalman, a Beijing-based researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the X-Band radar issue 'cuts to the heart of China's overall military modernization and role in Asia.'

However, she said a land-based X-Band radar is potentially somewhat less concerning to the Chinese than a sea-based one that could be more difficult for China to evade.

'So this land-based X-Band radar is not entirely a worst-case scenario for China,' said Ms. Saalman.

美国决定扩大它在亚太地区的导弹防御系统。分析人士说,美国此举虽然表面上看是为了防范朝鲜,但可能会加剧中国对美国遏制政策的担心,促使北京加快其导弹计划的实施步伐。

美国此番新努力包括在日本部署X波段预警雷达系统(也有可能在东南亚部署一个同样系统),这反映出美国在把主要力量投向中东和阿富汗长达10年后,目前正在越来越深地参与亚太地区的军事和安全事务。

中国官方对此的回应到目前为止还较为克制。北京大学国际安全事务资深专家朱峰说,美国放出这个消息更有可能是想加速军备竞赛。

相关阅读不过,安全分析人士说,美国导弹防御战略有可能进一步引发中国领导人的敌意,而他们目前正面临民族主义者要求保卫国家战略利益的压力。

澳大利亚国防军学院(Australian Defence Force Academy)的亚洲安全专家塞耶(Carl Thayer)说,中国将利用这一点在政治上做文章,对他们来讲,这一点凸显了他们所宣传的事实,即美国重返亚洲的战略暴露出美国的冷战思维,这一战略意在遏制中国。

中国国防部尚没有就美国反导计划直接发表评论,但它上周四提醒说,“中方始终认为,应从维护全球战略稳定和增进各国战略互信出发,慎重处理反导问题。”中国外交部也表达了同样的观点。

中国正在研发先进的新导弹,其中一些导弹可能有能力打击在亚太地区执行任务的美国航空母舰。中国这样做的目的之一是为了阻止美国进入亚太,这可能会令华盛顿在发生台海冲突时保护台湾的努力复杂化。

分析人士说,中国现在可能想全力推进这项计划,以便用中国的导弹压制住美国性能获得提升的导弹防御系统。

中国安全事务分析师埃里克森(Andrew Erickson)和科林斯(Gabe Collins)在《华尔街日报》上发表的一篇评论文章中说,为了不让中国得偿所愿,美国有可能陷入一场它比不起、更不用说获胜的竞赛。

上述美国高级官员说,尽管这一体系可能被中国大规模的进攻所压制,但由X波段雷达制导的美国导弹拦截系统或许能击退一场规模较为有限的攻击,保护美国的基地和舰船。这位美国官员说,你不必100%的有效,就可以制造一种令对方不得不改变战略的局面。

日本对其防务体系及美日长期安全盟友关系感情复杂。由于日本民众对美国在日本的军事存在越来越持反对态度,找到可以部署X波段雷达的地方并不容易。

日本北部的青森县已经部署了一个X波段雷达。2006年雷达安装的时候,当地居民对此表示了担忧,他们担心雷达可能使他们成为敌人潜在攻击的目标。其他人则反对更多美方人员派驻该雷达站。

五角大楼说,朝鲜是促使美国在导弹防御体系方面做出决策的直接威胁。

韩国外交部对导弹防御计划不予置评。此前,平壤方面在4月份进行了一次挑衅性的火箭试射。朝鲜说,火箭将把一颗卫星送入太空。但火箭升空几分钟后即坠毁。

平壤方面此前曾于2006年和2009年发射过远程导弹,两次发射中火箭均在升空后不久坠毁。美国情报机构一直认为,朝鲜最早可能在2015年或2016年拥有射程远及美国的导弹。

一些美国防务官员说,第三个X波段雷达可能部署在菲律宾。这有可能帮助华盛顿及其盟友更准确地跟踪从朝鲜和中国部分地区发射的弹道导弹。

菲律宾外交部助理部长赫南德兹(Raul Hernandez)说,美方尚未就在菲建立早期预警雷达站一事与菲方进行接触。

一些分析人士警告说,美国的导弹防御计划可能会使亚太地区陷入更加不稳定的状态,这一地区已经面临着常常会突然加剧的领土争端、对自然资源的争夺以及不断高涨的民族主义情绪。

美国的计划还可能迫使该地区各国政府做出艰难的抉择。马来西亚海事所(Maritime Institute of Malaysia)海事安全及外交中心高级研究员Sumathy Permal说,马来西亚珍视与美国和中国的密切关系。她在一封电子邮件中写道,马来西亚可能不想让中美两国中的任何一个感到不安。

卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)驻北京研究员司乐如(Lora Saalman)说,对于中国整体的军事现代化以及它在亚洲所扮演的角色而言,X波段雷达问题可谓直中要害。

不过她也说,在中国看来,陆基X波段雷达可能没有海基X波段雷达让人担忧,因为海基X波段雷达使中国更难以遁形。

她说,因此,对中国来说,这个陆基X波段雷达并不是最糟糕的情况。

本文关键字:双语阅读,小艾英语,双语网站,双语中国,实时资讯,互联网新闻,ERWAS,行业解析,创业指导,营销策略,英语学习,可以双语阅读的网站!
  • 我的微信
  • 扫一扫加关注
  • weinxin
  • 微信公众号
  • 扫一扫加关注
  • weinxin

发表评论

:?: :razz: :sad: :evil: :!: :smile: :oops: :grin: :eek: :shock: :???: :cool: :lol: :mad: :twisted: :roll: :wink: :idea: :arrow: :neutral: :cry: :mrgreen: