【英语中国】谁有望接任中国央行行长?

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所属分类:双语中国

2012-11-13 23:27

小艾摘要: China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, led a group of the country's top financial regulators and banking executives for a rare meet-the-press appearance Sunday night. Speaking on the sidelines ...
China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, led a group of the country's top financial regulators and banking executives for a rare meet-the-press appearance Sunday night. Speaking on the sidelines of the 18th Communist Party Congress, Mr. Zhou ─ along with China's chief banking regulator, Shang Fulin, and the heads of the country's Big Four banks ─ sought to reassure the world that the country's vast banking system is safe and sound despite rising bad loans, and Beijing will proceed with the kind of financial reforms needed to put the nation on a more sustainable growth path.

But the 64-year-old Mr. Zhou fell short of addressing what many likely saw as the elephant in the room: Will he step down next year when he reaches the retirement age of 65 for a Chinese cabinet minister?

'When you get old, you need to retire,' Mr. Zhou said, while quickly adding that the issue of his retirement should have no bearing on the central bank's monetary policy.

The 65-year-old mark, by the way, is fuzzy at best. If past practice is any guide, he doesn't have to step down immediately on his birthday, and China has carved out plenty of exceptions in the past.

But the scrutiny underscores the attention people put on the job of leading the People's Bank of China, the influence of which is rapidly growing beyond China's borders.

Mr. Zhou, who was appointed to the job in December 2002, is viewed as a key architect of China's financial reforms. He is widely expected to retire at the end of his second and final five-year term next year. The question of his likely successor has aroused keen interest at a time when the PBOC faces a host of challenging tasks from maintaining stability in the world's No. 2 economy to overhauling the country's creaky financial system.

Still, the top central bank job doesn't carry the prestige or influence of the equivalent positions at the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank. Whoever inherits Mr. Zhou's mantel won't have direct responsibility for setting China's monetary policy and will compete with other power institutions such as the National Development and Reform Commission for the ear of the real decision makers.

Among the leading contenders for the top PBOC job is Guo Shuqing, currently chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, according to China watchers. Mr. Guo, dubbed by some people in financial circles a 'scholar-official' like Mr. Zhou, has held positions as heads of China's foreign-exchange regulator, which is part of the PBOC, and of the China Construction Bank Corp. 601939.SH +0.47%, the country's second-largest lender by assets.

Since becoming the country's chief securities regulator late last year, Mr. Guo, 56 years old, has won kudos for taking a slew of measures aimed at bringing order to China's oft-chaotic stock market.

Installing someone like Mr. Guo as the PBOC governor, Chinese analysts say, would indicate Beijing's intention to press ahead with some of the long-awaited financial reforms, such as breaking the state banks' monopoly in the banking sector and relaxing controls over cross-border capital flows.

Lingling Wei

Bloomberg News周日,中国央行行长周小川在中共十八大会议间隙召开的新闻发布会上发言。
周日晚间,中国央行行长周小川带领中国高层金融监管人士和银行业高管出席了一场少有的媒体见面会。在中共十八大间歇,周小川与中国银监会主席尚福林及四大银行负责人一起力争让全世界放心:尽管不良贷款不断增多,中国庞大的银行体系是安全可靠的,且北京将推进金融改革,以便帮助中国走上更可持续的经济增长道路。

不过,64岁的周小川没有谈到在很多人看来可能显而易见但大家都刻意回避的一个问题:明年他到了中国部级官员规定的退休年龄65岁后会退下来吗?

周小川说:年纪大了,总是要退休的。他很快又说:我希望这个事和货币政策没有什么太多的联系。

顺便说一句,65岁的规定退休年龄非常模糊。如果以往的做法可以借鉴的话,他不必在65岁生日时马上退休,中国过去曾有很多次破例。

不过,记者的提问凸显出公众对领导中国央行这个工作的关注。中国央行的影响正在迅速扩大至中国境外。

2002年12月周小川被任命为中国央行行长。他被视为是中国金融改革的一位重要设计师。外界普遍认为他将在明年第二个、也是最后一个五年任期结束时退休。在中国央行面临一系列极具挑战的任务(从维护世界第二大经济体的稳定到改革中国过时的金融体系)之际,有关可能继任者的问题引发了公众强烈的关注。

尽管如此,中国央行行长一职并没有美联储(Federal Reserve)主席或欧洲央行(European Central Bank)行长那样的威望或影响。无论谁接替周小川,都不会直接负责中国货币政策的制定,而是将与国家发改委等其他权力机构竞争向真正的决策者提出建议。

据中国问题观察人士说,竞争中国央行行长一职的主要人选包括现任中国证监会主席的郭树清。和周小川一样,郭树清被金融圈子内的一些人称为“学者型官员。”他曾担任国家外汇管理局局长及中国建设银行董事长。外汇管理局由中国央行归口管理。按资产计算,建设银行是中国第二大银行。

自去年底出任中国证监会主席以来,56岁的郭树清采取了一系列措施整顿中国常常混乱的股市秩序,并因此赢得了好评。

中国分析人士说,任命像郭树清这样的人担任中国央行行长,将意味着北京有意推进外界期待已久的一些金融改革,比如打破国有银行在银行业的垄断地位,放宽对跨境资本流动的控制。

Lingling Wei

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)关键词:中国央行  退休  周小川  

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