【英语中国】惠誉下调中国主权信用评级

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所属分类:双语中国

2013-4-10 07:19

小艾摘要: China’s sovereign credit rating has been cut by a big international agency for the first time since 1999 with Fitch raising concerns yesterday that the country’s rising debt problems will require a ...
China’s sovereign credit rating has been cut by a big international agency for the first time since 1999 with Fitch raising concerns yesterday that the country’s rising debt problems will require a government bailout.

Fitch cut China’s long-term local currency rating from AA- to A+ yesterday, citing “underlying structural weaknesses” including low average incomes, lagging standards of governance and a rapid expansion of credit.

It also warned of the growing risks from the rise of shadow banking and said total credit in China may have reached 198 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of last year, up from 125 per cent in 2008.

China has faced concerns over debt levels since 2009, when state-owned banks issued a wave of loans to power the economy through the global financial crisis. This kept growth on track but inflated housing prices and saddled local governments with enormous loans.

“Ultimately, we think China’s debt problem is going to require sovereign resources to resolve and debt will migrate onto China’s sovereign balance sheet,” said Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia sovereign ratings at Fitch.

Fitch’s rating is a notch below those of Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, which both upgraded their views on the economy in late 2010. Fitch already rated China’s foreign currency debt as A+, which Mr Colquhoun said was “relatively high”.

Beijing has waged a campaign to rein in the real estate sector, raising mortgage downpayments and barring people from buying second homes in the hottest markets. Partly as a result, last year China recorded its lowest growth rate for a decade.

To prevent local governments from accumulating more debt, it has stopped them using financing vehicles to get round restrictions on borrowing from banks.

But some analysts fear that a big rise in financing through the shadow banking system has damped the effect of those controls. Overall credit flows have stayed extremely strong, rising 23 per cent last year, even as Beijing has capped the increase in formal bank lending.

Fitch also said China had a “less favourable record on inflation management” than its A-rated peers, though data out yesterday showed a sharp drop in price rises in March.

Additional reporting by Alexandra Stevenson

中国的主权信用评级自1999年以来首次被一家大型国际评级机构下调。惠誉(Fitch)昨日在下调中国评级的同时表示担忧,中国日积月累的债务问题将需要政府出手纾困。

惠誉昨日将中国的长期本币信用评级从AA-降至A+,称理由是“基础层面的结构性弱点”,包括平均收入低、治理标准滞后,以及信贷快速扩张。

该评级机构还警告,影子银行体系崛起带来的风险越来越大,并称,中国的总信贷可能已在去年底达到国内生产总值(GDP)的198%,远高于2008年的125%。

中国的债务水平自2009年以来一直令人担忧,那年中国的国有控股银行大举放贷,推动中国经济克服全球金融危机的影响。此举保持了增长,但导致房价膨胀,并使地方政府背上巨额贷款。

“最终而言,我们认为中国的债务问题将需要主权资源来解决,债务将转移到中国的主权资产负债表上,”惠誉的亚太区主权评级主管高瀚德(Andrew Colquhoun)表示。

惠誉对中国的评级比穆迪(Moody’s)和标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)对中国的评级低一档,后两家评级机构都在2010年末期上调了其对中国经济的展望。惠誉已将中国的外币债务评级为A+,高瀚德称,这个评级是“相对较高的”。

北京方面已出台房地产行业调控政策,提高抵押贷款首付款门槛,并在最火热的市场禁止人们购买第二套住房。这在一定程度上导致去年中国录得10年来最低的经济增长率。

为阻止地方政府积累更多债务,北京方面已制止地方政府利用融资工具来规避向银行借款的限制。

但一些分析师担心,通过影子银行体系的融资大幅增长,抵消了这些控制措施的影响。总体信贷流动仍极为强劲,去年增长23%,即便北京方面对正式的银行放贷规定了上限。

惠誉还表示,与评级同样为A的其它国家相比,中国“在通胀管理方面的记录不那么好”,尽管昨日发布的数据显示,中国3月份通胀大幅放缓。

亚历山德拉?斯蒂文森(Alexandra Stevenson)补充报道

译者/和风

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