【英语财经】中国央行确实主导了人民币贬值 Whodunit: Yes, China’s Central Bank Was Behind the Yuan Depreciation

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2014-5-9 09:35

小艾摘要: It's official: China's central bank was behind the Chinese yuan's recent depreciation. According to the latest data from the People's Bank of China, the central bank bought about 174 billion yuan wort ...
Whodunit: Yes, China's Central Bank Was Behind the Yuan Depreciation
It's official: China's central bank was behind the Chinese yuan's recent depreciation.

According to the latest data from the People's Bank of China, the central bank bought about 174 billion yuan worth of dollars in March, a purchase it made to drive down the value of the yuan against the U.S. dollar. Big as that figure is, the amount actually is lower than historical norms. For instance, the PBOC bought, on average, some 230 billion yuan worth of dollars a month last year to hold the yuan down, according to an analysis by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

But that doesn't mean the Chinese central bank has stepped back from strong intervention in the currency market, as promised in recent months. Rather, it only suggests that the PBOC hasn't been offsetting the rise in the supply of the yuan in the country's financial system that resulted from its dollar-buying intervention.

Normally, the Chinese central bank would do just that: offset its dollar-buying intervention by draining liquidity from the banking system through the sale of government or central bank bills in the open market. So why hasn't it this time?

The PBOC's recent engineering of the depreciation of the yuan was part of a bid to drive out speculators and make the currency more of a two-way bet. The central bank 'hasn't sterilized its intervention in order to make its foreign-exchange intervention more powerful,' said Bank of America analyst Claudio Piron.

The tightly-controlled yuan has weakened 2.8% against the dollar since the beginning of this year -- a rare decline for a currency that has appreciated steadily for most of the past decade. At Thursday's closing, one dollar bought 6.2280 yuan.

But unless it offsets the rise in money supply resulting from the intervention, as it usually does, the PBOC risks higher inflation down the road.

'Unsterilized intervention is not sustainable from a policy perspective as it can lead to inflationary consequences,' Mr. Piron said.

In other words, the yuan might be back on the appreciation track soon, Mr. Piron said.

Reuters
现在终于有定论了:中国央行确实主导了近期的人民币贬值。

根据中国央行的最新数据,该行3月份买入了价值约人民币1,740亿元的美元,通过这一买入美元的操作推低人民币兑美元汇率。虽然数额很大,但实际上却低于历史标准。比如,根据美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的分析,为抑制人民币汇率,中国央行去年每月平均买入价值约人民币2,300亿元的美元。

但是,这并不意味着中国央行如最近几个月承诺的那样不再强力干预汇市,而仅仅是表明,中国央行并未通过回笼操作消除这种汇市干预导致的中国金融系统人民币供应量的上升。

正常情况下中国央行的做法是:通过在公开市场发售国债或央行票据从银行系统回笼流动性,从而抵消购买美元的汇市干预行动的影响。那么央行这次为何没有这么做呢?

中国央行最近主导的人民币贬值是该行抑制投机、使人民币双向波动的计划中的一个步骤。美银分析师皮龙(Claudio Piron)表示,中国央行在干预之后没有冲销是为了使外汇干预举措更为有力。

今年年初以来,受严格控制的人民币兑美元汇率累计下跌了2.8%,对于在过去十年的大部分时间稳步上涨的人民币而言,这一下跌走势十分少见。周四收盘时,美元/人民币报人民币6.2280元。

但是,除非央行像往常一样冲销汇市干预引起的货币供应量上升,否则未来就有通货膨胀率上升的风险。

皮龙说,从政策角度而言,非冲销式干预是不可持续的,因为它可能会导致通货膨胀。

皮龙说,换句话讲,人民币可能很快就会重回升值轨道。

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