【英语财经】经济学家点评中国4月份贸易数据 Economists React: China’s Exports Surpass Low Expectations

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2014-5-8 14:18

小艾摘要: China posted a 0.9% year-over-year rise in exports in April. Feeble as that sounds, it still beat the 3.5% drop forecast by economists. Imports were also ahead of expectations, with a 0.8% rise. Both ...
Economists React: China's Exports Surpass Low Expectations
China posted a 0.9% year-over-year rise in exports in April. Feeble as that sounds, it still beat the 3.5% drop forecast by economists. Imports were also ahead of expectations, with a 0.8% rise. Both had fallen steeply in March.

But the picture is muddied by a rash of fake export invoicing last year (to get around China's capital controls), which makes this year's export figures look weak in comparison. Analysts have spent months trying to correct for the distortion. Here, they weigh in on the most recent figures (slightly edited for jargon):

China's trade data show signs of recovery but continue to understate the true health of the export sector... April's low export growth was, as in previous months, largely caused by rampant over-invoicing of trade to avoid capital flows last year, which has created an artificially strong base for comparison. These distortions appear to have resulted in exports to Hong Kong and Taiwan, via which most of the over-invoicing took place, contracting by 30% in year-over-year terms last month. In contrast, exports to the rest of the world grew 10.2% on-year, which suggests that external demand remains healthy, a view supported by strong export growth in Korea and Taiwan last month. - Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics

The contraction in Chinese trade in early 2014 is a bit of a mirage, since it compares 2014 figures, which are likely being measured fairly accurately, with 2013 figures that were distorted by over-invoicing of exports to bring hot money back on shore. China's export sector seems to be doing OK, as would be expected during a year in which domestic demand in the U.S., Japan, U.K., and continental Europe is strengthening. With China's exports consolidating and most of its purchasing managers' indexes marginally higher in April than March, there is a good chance that the People's Bank of China will allow the yuan to recover. -- Bill Adams, PNC Financial Services Group

Import growth will continuously be supported by government supportive measures in the near term, in our view. We saw the government kicked off a series of targeted fine-tuning measures in recent weeks, mainly focusing on infrastructure improvement, environmental protection and shanty-town renovation projects. These supportive measures will in turn boost demand towards upstream products. -- Fan Zhang, CIMB

As the trade surplus widened significantly, the depreciation pressure of the renminbi could be eased somewhat. We maintain our forecast that the RMB will start to strengthen in the second half of the year...Looking ahead, there are mixed signals on China's trade performance in the remainder of the second quarter. While the official PMI edged up, the contracts signed in the latest Cantonese Trade Fair dropped. -- Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao, ANZ Bank

We think that, after adjusting for over-invoicing issues, underlying export growth rose from 3.5% on year in March to around 8% on year in April, in U.S. dollar terms, broadly in line with the improvement in Korea's export growth...Does the improvement in export momentum of these two large Asian exporters finally indicate an acceleration of global demand? Until recently the recovery in global demand remained tepid. In February, the last month for which global data is available, global imports were up a modest 3.4% on year in real terms...With global demand growth seemingly on an upward trend and imports under pressure, we expect the (Chinese) trade surplus to widen further in 2014. -- Louis Kuijs, RBS


中国4月份出口同比增长0.9%。看上去增长乏力,但仍好于经济学家的预期。经济学家们此前预计中国4月份出口同比下降3.5%。中国4月份进口同比增长0.8%,也好于预期。中国3月份进口和出口均大幅下滑。

但中国出口的实际情况可能并非完全如此,因为去年4月份的出口数据因出口商虚开发票行为(为绕开中国的资本管制)而掺有水分,这使得上年同期的对比基数偏高,今年4月份的出口增长因此看起来较为乏力。数月来分析师们一直试图纠正这种失真。以下是经济学家对4月份数据的点评(略经编辑):

中国贸易数据显现好转迹象,但仍未充分反映出口业更加良好的真实状况。与前几个月一样,4月份出口增幅较低的主要原因仍是上年同期出口商虚开发票行为猖獗,人为造成同比的对比基数偏高。这种失真似乎造成了4月份中国大陆对香港和台湾(虚开发票大多发生在对香港和台湾出口中)的出口同比锐减了30%。相比之下,中国4月份对全球其他地区的出口同比增长10.2%,这表明外部需求依然较为强劲。韩国和台湾4月份强劲的出口增长为这一观点提供了支持。——凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)

中国贸易在2014年初的萎缩有点失真,因为是将可能计算得相当精确的2014年数据与由于虚开发票而严重扭曲的2013年同期数据相比较。虚开发票行为将热钱带入中国大陆。中国出口行业表现看起来不错,正如预期一样,因为今年美国、日本、英国和欧洲大陆内需好转。考虑到中国出口行业状况加强,加之4月份多数采购经理人指数(PMI)较3月份上涨,中国央行极有可能允许人民币反弹。——浦瑞兴金融集团(PNC Financial Services Group)叶文斌(Bill Adams)

在我们看来,短期内进口增长料将继续受到政府支持性措施的支撑。最近几周中国政府实施了一系列有针对性的微调措施,主要集中在基础设施改善、环境保护以及棚户区改造项目。这些支持性措施进而将提振上游产品的需求。——联昌国际(CIMB)的Fan Zhang

随着贸易顺差明显扩大,人民币贬值压力可能有所缓解。我们维持人民币将于今年下半年开始走强的预期。展望未来,在第二季度余下时间内中国贸易将有怎样表现方面,相关迹象传达出不同信号。尽管官方PMI小幅上涨,但是在最近中国进出口商品交易会上签订的合同数量下降。——澳新银行(ANZ Bank)的刘利刚和周浩

我们认为,经过出口虚报因素调整后,以美元计算,3月份和4月份的实际出口同比增幅分别爲3.5%和8%左右,大体与韩国出口增长改善情况相当。中国和韩国这两个亚洲大型出口经济体的出口动能改善是否最终意味着全球需求的提高呢?直到最近,全球需求复苏步伐依然保持温和。2月份全球实际进口同比温和增长3.4%。2月份是能够查到全球数据的最新的一个月份。考虑到全球需求增长处于上行趋势同时进口承压,预计2014年中国贸易顺差将进一步扩大。——苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)的高路易(Louis Kuijs)

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