【英语财经】Lex专栏:投资亚洲博彩业的最佳策略 Lex_The house wins again

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所属分类:双语财经

2014-5-9 07:02

小艾摘要: The best strategy in the Asian casino investment game has long been simple: shove all your chips to the middle of the table. Shares in the largest – the Macau operators and Genting Singapore – have ...
Lex_The house wins again
The best strategy in the Asian casino investment game has long been simple: shove all your chips to the middle of the table. Shares in the largest – the Macau operators and Genting Singapore – have at least doubled in the past five years. But this year they have underperformed, dropping about a tenth apiece. Time to cash in?

No. The sector’s weakness does make some sense. Growth stocks have taken a hit this year and some operators’ valuations were dizzying. At the turn of the year, ratios of enterprise values to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation had reached their highest levels since the operators began raking in the cash in 2010. The blockbuster performer, Galaxy Entertainment (up 70 per cent in a year, 2,888 per cent in five) had reached 27 times the past 12 months’ ebitda by late December. Now it is trading on 21. That remains high. The region’s broad entertainment sector averages 10. Genting, however, trades on a calming 13 times, down from a peak of 17. It beat first-quarter forecasts on Monday, with a 76 per cent jump in pre-tax profits.

Genting exemplifies one of the casinos’ strengths. They operate in tightly controlled markets. It runs one of two casinos in Singapore. The six Macau operators – Galaxy, Sands China, SJM Holdings, Wynn Macau, Melco Crown and MGM China – face table number caps, but not new competitors, leaving them to fight for a $44.4bn pie which grew by a fifth last year, even as China slowed. New markets in Manila, South Korea and Japan will eventually diminish Macau’s growth. These will limit licences too, though, and the big operators are likely to win them. A rigged game? Maybe, but rigged in favour of investors, for now

There is another helpful factor: small free floats. Exclude their majority owners, such as Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts, and other top 10 holders and there is $46bn in shares available, just a quarter of total market capitalisation. Keep those chips where they are.

投资亚洲博彩业的最佳策略一直很简单:把你所有的筹码都推到桌子中央去。规模最大的几家博彩运营商是澳门的那几家和云顶新加坡(Genting Singapore),这些公司的股价在过去5年里至少翻了一倍。但今年它们表现不佳,每家的股价都下跌了10%左右。那么现在是时候清仓走人了吗?

还不是时候。这一板块眼下的疲弱确实情有可原。成长型股票今年遭受冲击,一些博彩运营商此前的股票估值也高得有些离谱。在今年年初前后,这些运营商的企业价值与息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率(即企业价值倍数)达到自2010年它们开始日进斗金以来的最高水平。到去年12月末,以过去12月的EBITDA计算,这一板块的业绩佼佼者银河娱乐集团(Galaxy Entertainment)的企业价值倍数已达到27倍。(银河娱乐股价在一年里上涨70%,5年里总计上涨2888%。)现在它的企业价值倍数是21倍,依然很高。该地区整个娱乐业板块的平均倍数是10倍。云顶新加坡的企业价值倍数则没那么疯狂,现在为13倍,最高时为17倍。该公司周一发布的一季度财报显示税前利润猛增76%,超出市场预期。

云顶新加坡充分体现了这些博彩运营商的一个优势。它们在受到严格管控的市场中经营。云顶经营着新加坡两家赌场中的一家。澳门有6家博彩运营商,它们分别是银河娱乐(Galaxy Entertainment)、金沙中国(Sands China)、澳门博彩控股(SJM Holdings)、永利澳门(Wynn Macau)、新濠博亚(Melco Crown)和美高梅中国(MGM China)。这些公司面临赌桌数量限制,但没有新的竞争对手,从而可以瓜分444亿美元的蛋糕。即便在中国经济增长放缓的情况下,澳门博彩收入去年也增长了20%。马尼拉、韩国和日本这些新的市场最终将削弱澳门的增长。不过这些市场也会限制博彩牌照,而大型博彩运营商很可能将赢得牌照。这是否一场被操纵的游戏?或许是的,但就目前而言,这种操纵有利于投资者。

另一个有利的因素是:这些公司的流通股比例很少。除去拉斯维加斯金沙集团(Las Vegas Sands)和永利度假村(Wynn Resorts)等大股东,以及前十大股东中的其他股东以外,只有460亿美元的股票可供购买,仅占这些公司总市值的四分之一。继续把筹码放在那里,别拿回来。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

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