【英语财经】中国经济转型机遇与“痛苦”并存 China’s Shift to Consumer Economy Creates Opportunity and ‘Pain’

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2014-5-14 09:34

小艾摘要: China's transition to a consumer economy from a manufacturing one is a painful process with repercussions for a number of other economies, but is likely to give way to new investment opportunities, ex ...
China's Shift to Consumer Economy Creates Opportunity and 'Pain'
China's transition to a consumer economy from a manufacturing one is a painful process with repercussions for a number of other economies, but is likely to give way to new investment opportunities, executives told attendees of the International Finance Corp.-hosted Global Private Equity Conference in Washington, D.C.

'China has gone through a difficult three years,' said Robert Petty, a managing partner and co-founder of Clearwater Capital Partners. 'Labor prices are higher, manufacturing businesses are not making money, there's a lot of pain and not a lot of margin.'

However, he said, those changes, coupled with new leadership and actions by the Central Bank, are making for 'interesting' valuations in the country. The nascent private lending and 'shadow banking' community also are providing a new opportunity for investors, said Mr. Petty.

'It's exactly the time to be contrarian,' said Mr. Petty. 'It's going to be a hard transition...won't happen overnight, but it's an interesting time.'

The difficulty of that transition isn't staying within China's borders. Countries that hitched their wagon to the juggernaut are feeling that pain as well.

'People are becoming more skeptical about Peru,' given the country's production of minerals that are shipped to China, said Teresa Barger, senior managing director at Cartica Management.

'Chile is also taking it on the chin,' she said. Lower commodity prices and labor action has South Africa 'quite worried.'

'Brazil is also a big victim,' she said. 'The terms of trade that were so positive, sending soy and iron ore over to China deindustrialized Brazil. They thought they were being smart, not lucky. Now it's time they have to look at structural reforms.'

There have been a few winners emerging from the changes in China.

'Clearly the biggest beneficiary for higher wage costs [in China] is Vietnam, also Indonesia and the Philippines,' said Ms. Barger. 'To a lesser extent Laos and Cambodia, though they don't have the infrastructure yet.'

由国际金融公司(International Finance Corp.)牵头,在华盛顿特区举办的全球私募股权投资大会(Global Private Equity Conference)上,业界高管对与会者表示,中国从制造经济转向消费经济的过程是痛苦的,令其他一些经济体受到冲击,但这也可能带来新的投资机遇。

Clearwater Capital Partners执行合伙人兼联合创始人佩蒂(Robert Petty)表示,中国度过了艰难的三年;劳动力成本在上升,制造业务不挣钱,经济痛楚多,而利润率却不高。

但他表示,上述变化正与领导层换届和央行措施一同给中国市场带来“有趣的”估值。佩蒂说,新生态的私人贷款业务和“影子银行”体系也给投资者提供了一个新机遇。

他还表示,目前正是进行反向思维的时机。他说中国将经历艰难的经济转型,并表示这种转型不会在一夜之间完成,但这是一个有趣的时期。

转型的艰难还不仅仅限于中国国内,与中国关系紧密的国家也会感受到这种痛苦。

Cartica Management的高级执行董事巴杰(Teresa Barger)表示,人们对秘鲁的怀疑情绪越来越浓,原因在于中国是该国矿石的出口目的地。

她说,智利同样受创。另外,大宗商品价格下跌及劳工行动也让南非“非常担忧”。

巴杰还说,巴西也是一大受害者;该国之前的贸易条件非常有利,向中国出口大豆和铁矿石削弱了该国的工业生产能力。她还说,巴西人曾认为之前的好日子得益于自己精明,而非运气,现在他们就不得不着眼于结构性改革了。

也有一些国家会从中国转型中受益。

巴杰说,中国劳动力成本上升的最大受益者显然是越南,另外印尼和菲律宾也能从中得利;老挝和柬埔寨尽管尚无相关基础设施,但也能在较小程度上受益。

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