【英语财经】美欧经济数据疲弱 投资者再度紧张 Nervous investors head for havens

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2014-5-16 06:42

小艾摘要: Investors retreated from stocks and snapped up top-tier government bonds yesterday after poor eurozone data increased pressure on the European Central Bank to take aggressive action to bolster the reg ...
Nervous investors head for havens
Investors retreated from stocks and snapped up top-tier government bonds yesterday after poor eurozone data increased pressure on the European Central Bank to take aggressive action to bolster the region.

The European bloc’s economy expanded by just 0.2 per cent in the first quarter, missing consensus forecasts of a 0.4 per cent rise. Germany led the way with growth of 0.8 per cent while France was stagnant, Italy contracted slightly and the Netherlands shrank by 1.4 per cent.

Mario Draghi, ECB president, and other policy makers including Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann, have dropped hints in recent weeks that they are ready to act against inflation, which at 0.7 per cent is less than half its near-2 per cent target.

But investors fear the ECB has mistimed the moment to act and the region is slipping into a deflationary spiral, sapping growth and increasing debt burdens. Weakness in Europe also poses risks to other parts of the world, putting pressure on the global recovery.

David Tepper, the billionaire founder of Appaloosa Management, called the ECB “stupid” at the Salt conference of hedge fund managers in Las Vegas. He said there was a “co-ordinated complacency” among central banks, which were failing to recognise the threat of deflation.

“The ECB had better ease in June,” he said, adding that US growth was not strong enough to pick up the slack if Europe slowed. “I don’t know how far they are behind the curve, but I think they are really far. I’m nervous, it’s a nervous time.”

Investors bought German, UK and US sovereigns, pushing their yields, which move inversely to price, to new lows for the year. The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 2.50 per cent for the first time since October after disappointing industrial production data.

Hefty selling erupted across peripheral eurozone bonds, pushing yields higher for Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece.

“There is a developing view that the ECB is behind the curve and we are seeing investors demand high-quality government bonds and it’s causing a lot of pain for people who thought yields would not continue falling,” said John Brady, RJ O’Brien managing director.

The euro touched an 11-week low as the prospect of ECB easing increased, while poor data hit European and US equities.

“We believe today’s weak outcome is another argument for further ECB easing at the June meeting,” said Apolline Menut, economist at Barclays. “In our view, a cut in all official rates is the most likely action at the June meeting, although we do not think this would be enough to weaken the euro further.”

After climbing into record territory this week, the S&P 500 was down 1.3 per cent at midday in New York and the Eurofirst 300 closed down 0.8 per cent.

投资者昨日从股市退却,同时抢购顶级国债。欧元区发布的经济数据偏弱,加大了欧洲央行(ECB)采取积极行动扶持本地区经济的压力。

欧元区经济第一季度仅增长0.2%,逊于增长0.4%的共识预测。德国一马当先,实现0.8%的增长,而法国停滞不前,意大利略微收缩,荷兰则收缩1.4%。

欧洲央行行长马里奥?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)以及其他政策制定者——包括德国央行(Bundesbank)行长延斯?魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)——最近几周暗示,他们准备针对通胀偏低的问题采取行动。目前欧元区通胀为0.7%,还不到接近2%这个目标的一半。

但投资者担心欧洲央行没有把握好行动时机。目前该地区正滑向一个通缩漩涡,削弱增长势头,并增加债务负担。欧洲增长乏力还对世界其他地区构成风险,拖累全球经济复苏。

在拉斯维加斯举行的SALT对冲基金研讨会上,Appaloosa Management的亿万富翁创始人戴维?泰珀(David Tepper)直呼欧洲央行“愚蠢”。他表示,目前几个央行之间存在一种“协调的自满”,没有认识到通缩的威胁。

“欧洲央行最好在6月放松政策,”他说。他还表示,如果欧洲经济放缓,美国的增长还没有强大到足以弥补缺口的程度。“我不知道他们落后于形势的情况有多严重,但我觉得很严重。我很紧张,这是一个令人紧张的时期。”

投资者买入德国、英国和美国的主权债券,推动这些债券的收益率(与价格成反比)跌至年内新低。美国发布了令人失望的工业产值数据后,美国10年期国债的收益率自去年10月以来首次跌至2.50%以下。

欧元区外围国家的债券则遭抛售,意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙和希腊国债的收益率均上升。

“目前有一种正在形成的观点,认为欧洲央行行动落后,我们正看到投资者踊跃买入高品质的政府债券,这给那些认为收益率不会持续下跌的人带来很多痛苦,”RJ O’Brien董事总经理约翰?布拉迪(John Brady)表示。

随着欧洲央行放松政策的几率增加,欧元汇率触及11周低点,同时糟糕数据打击了欧洲和美国股市。

“我们相信,今日的疲弱局面是欧洲央行在6月会议上进一步放松政策的又一个依据,”巴克莱(Barclays)经济学家阿普罗?梅纽特(Apolline Menut)表示。“我们认为,6月会议上最有可能采取的行动是下调所有官方利率,但我们不认为这将足以进一步压低欧元。”

美国基准股指标普500(S&P 500)在本周升至创纪录水平后,昨日纽约午盘时下跌1.3%,而欧洲的Eurofirst 300收盘下跌0.8%。

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