【英语财经】中国股市神秘的2000点 China’s Volatile Stock Market Stays Faithful to Unofficial F …

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2014-5-21 18:19

小艾摘要: If there's one mystery about China's volatile stock market, it's the legendary and miraculously resilient 2000 points of the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index. Trading on Wednesday was no exception, ...
China's Volatile Stock Market Stays Faithful to Unofficial F ...
If there's one mystery about China's volatile stock market, it's the legendary and miraculously resilient 2000 points of the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index.

Trading on Wednesday was no exception, with the index dipping below the 2000 level in the morning, before reclaiming the lost ground after the lunch break.

Time and time again, since the index climbed above that level 14 years ago, the index has rarely stayed under 2000 for long, despite the poor performance of China's stocks since the global financial crisis in 2008.

It is widely viewed as the limit of Beijing's tolerance of how far a bearish mood can extend in a market dominated by retail investors, and out of fear of any political and social instability that any prolonged selloff could trigger.

Whenever there are signs that the market threatens to break or stay under that crucial level for long, there is action by authorities or mysterious trading activity that keeps the index buoyant.

On many occasions the government has swiftly rolled out market supportive measures ranging from a mini economic stimulus to easing financing curbs on property developers. On other occasions, state-controlled media has delivered messages that talk up the future of both the economy and equities investment.

On Wednesday, the index sank as low as 1991.06 due to persistent worries about a slowing Chinese economy, a theme that's pushed the index down 4.3% this year. But the market later in the trading day rallied after China's economic planning agency released details of a plan to let private capital take part in major infrastructure projects to help boost growth.

'At the moment, the 2000 level does appear to be a 'policy bottom' for the market. Since the market fell below that level in late March, the authorities have unveiled a series of policy measures aimed at boosting sentiment,' said Huang Cendong, an analyst at Sinolink Securities.

Back on March 20, the index fell to 1993.48 but the very next day, the market staged a strong comeback as news circulated that the securities regulator would launch a long-awaited pilot project to let major blue chips issue preferred shares, a fresh fundraising channel for cash-hungry companies like banks.

In a similar incident on May 9, the Shanghai index fell to an intraday low of 2001.30. After the market's close, the State Council, China's cabinet, unveiled plans to reform the country's financial markets, including overhauling the nation's much-criticized system of initial public offerings, spurring the market up 2.1% the next day.

On other occasions, no policy measures were taken but the market enjoyed sharp turnarounds within the last few hours of trading that helped put the battered index back above the 2000 level. Traders have attributed such dramatic moves to suspected buying from powerful investors such as state pension funds and asset managers with close ties to the government.

In some way, the 2000 level of the Shanghai index carries the same kind of symbolic significance attached to the minimum economic growth rates, ranging from 7.2% to 7.5%, for a government that needs to rely on a booming economy and stock market to maintain job creation and social stability.

'However, it's impossible to protect the 'policy bottom' all the time. There will always be a 'market bottom' below that. In that respect, only when economic fundamentals show signs of improvement can the stock market really turn around,' said Mr. Huang.

如果说跌宕起伏的中国股市有什么神秘之处,那无疑是上证综合指数屹立不倒的2000点大关,这是个带有传奇色彩的奇迹般的点位。

周三的交易亦不例外,当日上证综指早盘一度跌破2000点,但午盘后收复失地。

Zuma Press2014年5月19日,浙江杭州,一名投资者从一家券商的电子屏幕前走过。自从14年前站上2000点以来,上证综指曾一次次地跌破这个点位,但很少长时间保持在2000点以下,尽管2008年全球金融危机爆发后中国股市表现一直不如人意。

2000点被普遍视为中国政府的一个底线,一旦超过这个底线,政府便无法容忍以散户为主的中国股市的看跌人气继续蔓延,政府担心的是,股市长期下跌会引发政治和社会动荡。

以往,每当有迹象显示股市可能跌破或长时间保持在2000点以下,当局就会采取行动或出现神秘交易支撑股市。

在许多情况下,中国政府迅速推出了救市措施,例如小型经济刺激举措、放松房地产开发商的融资限制等。另外一些时候,官方媒体对外界传递信号,热烈谈论经济和股市投资的未来。

周三,上证综指盘中一度跌至1991.06点,原因是围绕中国经济增长放缓的担忧挥之不去。受这一主题拖累,上证综指今年迄今累计下跌了4.3%。不过,在中国经济规划部门发布有关鼓励民营资本参与大型基建项目的计划细节后,中国股市出现了反弹。

国金证券(Sinolink Securities)分析师黄岑栋称,目前阶段,对市场来说,2000点似乎的确是“政策底部”;在上证综指3月底跌破2000点大关后,中国政府出台了一连串旨在提振股市人气的政策措施。

上证综指3月20日跌至1993.48点,但在3月21日强劲反弹,因市场传闻称证监会将推出市场期待已久的试点计划,允许大型蓝筹企业发行优先股。对银行这类渴求资金的企业来说,发行优先股将成为一个新的融资渠道。

5月9日历史又一次重演,上证综指跌至日内低点2001.30点。而收盘后,中国国务院推出了金融市场改革计划,其中包括改革中国备受批评的新股发行机制,第二天股市受到提振,大涨2.1%。

在其他情况下,虽然没有政策措施的支持,但大盘在交易日的最后几个小时大幅反转,帮助受压的股指重回2000点之上。交易员们将这样剧烈震荡的走势归因于实力强大投资者的疑似买盘,如中国社保基金和与政府关系密切的资产管理公司。

在某种程度上,上证综指2000点的水平与中国经济7.2%-7.5%的最低增长率有着同样重大的象征意义,因为政府需要依靠经济和股市的繁荣来创造就业和维持社会稳定。

但黄岑栋称,永远守住“政策底部”不太现实,总会有低于政策底部的市场底部。他说,从这一角度看,只有当经济基本面出现好转迹象时,股市才能真正复苏。

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