【英语财经】美联储官员呼吁改变“退出”策略 NY Fed president floats change to exit strategy

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2014-5-21 11:28

小艾摘要: One of the US Federal Reserve’s most influential officials has called for a change to its exit strategy from easy monetary policy.William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said the central bank ...
NY Fed president floats change to exit strategy
One of the US Federal Reserve’s most influential officials has called for a change to its exit strategy from easy monetary policy.

William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said the central bank should keep reinvesting in its mortgage portfolio until after it raises interest rates. The current exit strategy calls for stopping reinvestment before rates go up.

The call for the Fed to keep its mortgage portfolio larger for longer signals how exit strategy is now the most active policy debate at the central bank as the US economy gets closer to full employment. The possibility of more sustained Fed demand may boost markets for mortgage-backed securities.

Mr Dudley said that raising interest rates would give the Fed the flexibility to cut them again if the economy gets into trouble, so it is more important than reducing the MBS portfolio.

“Delaying the end of reinvestment puts the emphasis where it needs to be – getting off the zero lower bound for interest rates,” said Mr Dudley in a speech to the New York Association for Business Economics on Tuesday.

“In my opinion, this is far more important than the consequences of the balance sheet being a little larger for a little longer.”

he Fed is still buying mortgage-backed securities every month as part of its effort to drive down long-term interest rates and support the economy. When someone pays back their mortgage, the Fed reinvests the money in new MBS. Stopping reinvestment would allow its portfolio to decline gradually.

In an upbeat speech on the economy, Mr Dudley signalled he was happy with tapering Fed asset purchases at the current pace of $10bn per meeting, and with current market expectations for a first rise in interest rates in the middle of 2015.

美联储(Fed)最具影响力的官员之一近日呼吁美联储改变其退出宽松货币政策的路径。

美国纽约联储银行(New York Fed)总裁威廉?达德利(William Dudley)称,美联储应持续再投资于它的抵押贷款投资组合,直到加息之后。而目前的“退出战略”则是,美联储在加息之前就停止再投资。

达德利呼吁美联储在更长时间内继续扩大其抵押贷款组合,这表明,随着美国经济接近完全就业,“退出策略”已成为美联储内讨论最激烈的议题。如果美联储对抵押贷款类证券的需求持续更长时间,将会有利于抵押贷款支持证券市场的发展。

达德利表示,加息将赋予美联储灵活性:如果美国经济陷入困境,美联储可以再次降息,这要比减持抵押贷款类证券更为重要。

达德利周二在纽约纽约商业经济协会(New York Association for Business Economics)发表演讲时表示:“推迟结束再投资,是把力气使在了该使的地方,那就是让利率脱离零下限。”

“在我看来,这要比资产负债表规模再大一点,时间再久一点带来的后果重要的多。”

美联储仍在每月购买抵押贷款支持证券,这是它推低长期利率以及支撑经济的努力的一部分。当有人偿还抵押贷款时,美联储会将这笔钱再投资于新的抵押贷款支持证券。停止再投资将使得美联储的投资组合规模逐渐缩小。

达德利在演讲中对美国经济前景表示乐观。他说,美联储目前每次开会,都会缩减100亿美元的资产购买规模,对这个速度他感到满意。他也同意目前的市场预期,即美联储将在2015年年中首次加息。

译者/梁艳裳

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