【英语财经】台湾数据预示中国大陆及亚洲经济即将回暖 Recent Taiwan Data Sugget China, Rest of Asia to See Pickup

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2014-5-26 17:22

小艾摘要: As economists scramble for clues to predict when China will emerge from its recent slowdown, some of them are looking opposite the mainland: Taiwan. Taiwan's economy is only 5% the size of China's (ba ...
Recent Taiwan Data Sugget China, Rest of Asia to See Pickup
As economists scramble for clues to predict when China will emerge from its recent slowdown, some of them are looking opposite the mainland: Taiwan.

Taiwan's economy is only 5% the size of China's (based on 2013 nominal GDP), but the island's trade data--particularly export orders--have long been on economists' radar. That's because about half the orders counted in the Taiwanese data are actually filled in factories in China, and thus count as Chinese exports when shipped.

Historically, Taiwan's export orders for overseas factories 'picked up well the turning points in China's exports, and tended to lead the evolution of China's exports by around two months,' RBS economist Louis Kuijs wrote in a recent research report.

April export orders rose 8.9% on-year -- their fastest pace in 14 months -- and showed growth to all regions.

China's exports have also shown signs of stabilizing, after a slow start to the year.

The result 'bodes well for a modest trade rebound' in the second quarter, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Marcella Chow wrote of the Taiwan export-order reading. It also 'reinforces recent indications that a gradual recovery in the developed economies is gathering pace.'

Taiwanese manufacturers have flocked to China since the 1990s, when Beijing began offering tax incentives to help modernize the country's manufacturing and provide jobs and training for a large pool of relatively unskilled labor.

Exports from China also enjoy lower tariffs in many countries, as Beijing has struck far more trade deals with other markets than Taipei.

Aside from its implications for China, the recent Taiwan data suggest the West's recovery increasingly is feeding through to Asia.

April industrial production surprised on the upside, with Barclays Capital citing notable strength in personal computers and mobile phones, segments that had been weak for the past two years.

'The strength suggests that Taiwan's until-recently narrowly based recovery led by semiconductors is broadening to finished consumer goods, and bodes well for the sustainability of the recovery,' Barclays' Wai Ho Leong wrote.

With a slew of new consumer electronic devices hitting the market later this year, coupled with better demand from advanced and Southeast Asian markets, economists believe Taiwan is set to receive more orders in coming months --mostly for electronics--from overseas clients.

Still, the recovery is likely to be tame by Taiwanese standards: From 2002-2007, the island's exports grew by an average of 12% a year and its gross domestic product by 5.3%, ING economist Tim Condon notes. This year, he expects GDP to grow just 2.6%.

经济学家极力寻找蛛丝马迹试图推测中国经济何时能走出阴霾之际,一些人将目光投向了中国大陆对岸的台湾。

台湾的经济规模仅相当于中国大陆的5%(基于2013年名义GDP计算),但台湾的贸易数据(尤其是出口订单)一直是经济学家捕捉中国大陆经济走向的雷达,因为台湾数据中的出口订单有一半左右是在大陆的工厂完成的,这些订单在发货时会被计入中国的出口。

苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)在最近的一份研究报告中写道,历史上,台湾向海外工厂发出的出口订单准确地反映了中国大陆出口的转折点,而且往往提前两个月左右就揭示出中国大陆出口形势的变化。

今年4月份台湾出口订单年同比增长8.9%(为14个月来最快增速),所有领域均实现增长。

中国大陆出口继今年年初放缓后也显现出企稳迹象。

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)经济学家Marcella Chow在评价台湾出口订单数据时写道,这一结果预示着第二季度贸易有望温和反弹。她还表示,这也印证了近期显示发达经济体缓慢的复苏步伐正在加快的迹象。

上世纪90年代以来,台湾制造商大举进入中国大陆,当时中国大陆正在提供税收优惠,希望加快制造业的现代化,并为大量缺乏技能的劳动力提供就业和培训。

相比台湾政府,中国政府与其他市场达成的贸易协议要多得多,所以中国的出口产品在许多国家也享受较低的关税。

除了反映中国的情况,台湾最近的数据也表明,西方的经济复苏正加快向亚洲传导。

台湾4月份工业产值意外增长。Barclays Capital指出,过去两年一直表现疲软的个人电脑和手机产值显著增长。

Barclays的梁炜豪在报告中写道,这意味着台湾经济直到最近才由主要靠半导体行业拉动转向由范围更大的成品拉动,预示着未来复苏的可持续性。

考虑到今年晚些时候将有一连串新的消费类电子产品上市,加之来自发达市场和东南亚市场的需求回暖,经济学家们预计未来几个月台湾将从海外客户手中接获更多订单,大多数是电子产品订单。

不过,荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家康登(Tim Condon)指出,按台湾标准来看,本轮复苏可能仍是温和的:2002-2007年台湾出口年均增长12%,本地生产总值(GDP)年均增长5.3%。他预计今年台湾GDP将仅增长2.6%。

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