【英语财经】领先经济体首季贸易环比下跌 OECD raises fears on recovery

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2014-5-28 06:44

小艾摘要: Exports from both the advanced and the leading emerging economies slowed sharply in the first three months of this year, according to new figures that raise concerns about the health of the global rec ...
OECD raises fears on recovery
Exports from both the advanced and the leading emerging economies slowed sharply in the first three months of this year, according to new figures that raise concerns about the health of the global recovery.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said yesterday that exports by the G7 and Brics economies had fallen by a collective 2.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 from the previous three months. Imports from the same countries fell by 0.1 per cent in the same period.

The data confirm fears that global trade had a slow start to 2014 despite predictions from the World Trade Organisation and others of a return to buoyant growth after several dire years.

“The indication that we have of the moment of any great bounce back [in global trade] is that it is not coming through,” said Nadim Ahmad, head of trade and competitiveness statistics at the OECD.

The OECD numbers released yesterday showed that among G7 and Brics economies only Germany and Italy registered increases in exports.

But Mr Ahmad said it was hard to extract a -common reason for the slowdown, with the picture still murky due to one-off factors and shocks in economies such as China, the US and Japan.

In China, where exports fell 7.3 per cent in the first quarter from the previous three months, remnants of last year’s crackdown on the over-invoicing used by companies to get around capital controls were still being seen, the OECD said. The figures were also distorted by the lunar new year holiday.

But China was not an exception among leading developing countries, as all of the Brics economies saw their exports shrink in the first three months of this year.

新的数据表明,今年头三个月发达经济体和领先新兴经济体的出口急剧放缓,这引发了人们对于全球复苏强劲程度的担忧。

经合组织(OECD)昨天表示,2014年第一季度七国集团(G7)和金砖国家(Brics)的出口环比下跌2.6%。同期这些国家的进口下跌0.1%。

尽管世贸组织(WTO)及其他机构曾预测,全球贸易在经历多年惨淡之后将重返强劲增长,但有人担心2014年全球贸易开局缓慢。上述数据证实了这一担忧。

经合组织贸易与竞争力统计部门主管纳迪姆?艾哈迈德(Nadim Ahmad)表示:“目前我们掌握的(有关全球贸易)大幅反弹的指标显示,反弹尚未发生。”

经合组织昨天发布的数据显示,在七国集团和金砖国家中,只有德国和意大利出口出现了增长。

不过艾哈迈德表示,很难为此轮贸易放缓找到共同原因,目前局面仍不明朗,原因在于各种一次性因素以及中国、美国和日本等经济体遭遇的冲击。

经合组织表示,今年第一季度中国的出口环比下跌了7.3%,这一数字中仍能看到去年打击企业虚开发票以规避资本管制的残余影响。此外,春节假期也令数据被扭曲。

不过,在领先的发展中国家里,中国并不是例外,今年头三个月所有金砖国家出口都出现了萎缩。

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