【英语财经】5月美国PMI数据引发市场波动 US data mix-up sparks market swings

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2014-6-3 15:28

小艾摘要: US markets suffered a bizarre morning of volatility after the Institute for Supply Management revised its closely watched manufacturing survey twice in the space of a couple of hours.Although economic ...
US data mix-up sparks market swings
US markets suffered a bizarre morning of volatility after the Institute for Supply Management revised its closely watched manufacturing survey twice in the space of a couple of hours.

Although economic data are often revised, it normally takes months, not minutes. The incident highlights the sensitivity of financial markets to a survey-based indicator put out by a private organisation.

At 10am, the ISM said its purchasing managers’ index had fallen to 53.2 in May, down from 54.9 in April and well below market expectations of 55.5. Such a fall would be a worrying sign of economic weakness. Ten-year Treasury yields immediately dropped from 2.51 to 2.49 per cent.

Then around 11.30, the ISM corrected the figure to 56, saying it had incorrectly applied the seasonal adjustment from the previous month. Markets rallied. But that was not the end – about an hour later, the ISM corrected its figure again to 55.4. That left 10-year yields trading at around 2.53 per cent.

David Ader, strategist at CRT Capital, said: “The market was weaker before, goosed with [the first revision], and now with full news out is weaker again.”

The ISM did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The second revision led Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at MFR, to say the index was “one from The Three Stooges school of statistics”. Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, said: “Another revision, the only question is whether two wrongs make a right?”

The ISM index is constructed by asking purchasing managers about expansion or contraction in their production, their inventories, plans for new hiring and the amount of new orders.

A reading above 50 is consistent with expanding activity. Economists value ISM as a leading indicator of future activity, and thus a sign of where harder data – such as the monthly non-farm payrolls report – is likely to go next.

Michael Kastner, principal at Halyard Asset Management, said: “It’s embarrassing for ISM, we usually get a revision a month or so later.” After the initial print that was softer than expected, Mr Kastner said: “I was scratching my head when it came that low.”

The revised data are consistent with an economy bouncing back from a dismal first quarter, when freezing winter weather and a run down in inventories caused it to contract at an annualised pace of 1 per cent.

However, there was one disappointment in the data, with the employment sub-index falling from 54.7 to 52.8. That suggests faster growth in activity is still not turning into rapid jobs growth, which in turn would feed a broader recovery.

美国市场早盘遭遇古怪波动,原因是美国供应管理协会(ISM)在几个小时的时间内两次修正了受到密切关注的制造业调查指数。

虽然经济数据常常会被修正,但这通常需要数月时间,而不是短短几分钟。这一事件凸显出,对于一家私立机构基于调查而编制的指标,金融市场是多么的敏感。

ISM最初宣布,今年5月的采购经理人指数(PMI)降至53.2,低于4月份的54.9,也远远低于市场预计的55.5。这一下降可谓一个令人担忧的信号,说明经济形势疲软。10年期美国国债收益率立刻从2.51%降至2.49%。

大约过了一个半小时,ISM将采购经理人指数修正为56,称自己错误地沿用了前一个月的季节性调整。市场应声大涨。但事情并未就此结束——又过了大约一个小时,ISM再次将采购经理人指数修正为55.4。受此影响,10年期美国国债收益率在2.53%附近徘徊。

CRT Capital策略师戴维?阿德(David Ader)表示:“之前市场较为疲软,第一次修正刺激市场走高。现在,所有信息都公布了,市场又再次走软。”

ISM未立刻回应记者的置评请求。

对于第二次修正,MFR首席美国经济学家乔舒亚?夏皮罗(Joshua Shapiro)表示,该指数简直是“由活宝三人组统计学派发布的数据”。三菱东京UFJ银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ)首席金融经济学家克里斯?鲁普基(Chris Rupkey)表示:“对于第二次修正,唯一的问题是两次错误是否让最终的数据变得正确?”

ISM的指数编制方法是,询问采购经理他们的生产、库存、招聘新人的计划以及新订单的数量是扩大了还是缩小了。

指数高于50,意味着经济活动处于扩张中。经济学家将ISM采购经理人指数看作一种领先指标,认为它预示着未来的经济活动,还预示着更加硬性的经济数据的下一步走向,例如每月的非农就业报告。

Halyard资产管理公司(Halyard Asset Management)主管迈克尔?卡斯特纳(Michael Kastner)说:“对于ISM来说,此事非常尴尬,我们通常在初始数据公布一个月左右之后才会拿到修正数据。”对低于预期的初始数据,卡斯特纳表示:“初始数据如此之低让我不禁挠头。”

修正后的数据符合美国经济在惨淡的第一季度之后出现反弹的走势。第一季度,寒冷的冬季天气以及企业的去库存行为导致美国经济按年率计算萎缩了1%。

但5月份的采购经理人指数有一个地方让人失望:就业分项从54.7降至52.8。这表明,经济活动增长的提速仍未能转化为更快的就业增长,而后者能拉动更广泛的复苏。

译者/马拉

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