【英语财经】中国央行周一大幅调高人民币中间价 PBoC move to lift renminbi suggests policy success

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2014-6-9 21:52

小艾摘要: The People's Bank of China's decision to fix the renminbi 0.22 per cent higher on Monday could seem minor - until you see a chart of it.The central bank determines the mid-rate for the renminbi each m ...
PBoC move to lift renminbi suggests policy success
The People's Bank of China's decision to fix the renminbi 0.22 per cent higher on Monday could seem minor - until you see a chart of it.

The central bank determines the mid-rate for the renminbi each morning. After weekend data showed the trade surplus nearly double from a month earlier to $35.8bn, the PBoC lifted the daily fix in its biggest move in a year-and-a-half.

The move could signal that the PBoC is satisfied with its effort to batter the currency in recent months.

Guided by the PBoC, the renminbi has declined 3 per cent in 2014, a move that both helps Chinese exports and curbs one-way speculation that the renminbi will keep appreciating.

Lifting the daily fix by so much suggests the PBoC sees success on both of these fronts.

First, the weekend's trade data showed exports accelerate, but imports unexpectedly declined and indicated consumption is weakening.

Lifting the fix suggests policymakers are happy with the state of exports and are now trying to support the import side of the trade equation, said Sacha Tihanyi, currency strategist at Scotiabank in Hong Kong, who called the move "wholly unexpected."

He also said:

It could be that policy makers are making efforts to bolster the volatility of the fix in an effort to increase uncertainty in the market, making it more consistent with the ultimate reform goal of a relatively freely-trading market.

Second, analysts at Barclays noted that forex purchases from the central bank "slowed markedly in recent months." This suggests reduced capital inflows, including the speculative kind the central bank wants to thwart.

Last week Barclays calculated that China experienced more than $8bn in capital outflows in April, following a six-month period when about $140bn came in the other direction.

To avoid expectations that the currency will weaken further, the PBoC can use the fix and FX intervention "to manage the degree of near-term depreciation [and] avoid expectation of large currency depreciation," the analysts wrote before the fix was set.

Mr Tihanyi suggests keeping a close eye on the fix each day, to interpret just what the PBoC is up to.

We shall see in the coming days whether this intentional fixing behaviour represents an effort to increase fixing volatility (and have the knock-on effect in spot trading), or whether it represents a trend reversal in policy maker fixing intention.

中国央行(PBoC)周一早晨将人民币兑美元中间价提高0.22%,为一年半以来最大单日涨幅。此前,上周末有数据显示,中国5月贸易顺差较前一个月扩大近一倍,至358亿美元。

此举可能表明,中国央行对于最近几个月压低人民币汇率的举措感到满意。

在中国央行的引导下,今年人民币兑美元汇率已下跌3%,此举既有利于中国的出口,也会抑制投资者单向押注于人民币将继续升值的预期。

大幅提高人民币中间价一举,暗示中国央行认为这两方面都取得了成功。

首先,上周末的贸易数据显示出口已在加速,而进口意外下滑,表明消费疲软。

丰业资本(Scotia Capital)驻香港策略师萨沙?泰汉伊(Sacha Tihanyi)表示,提高人民币中间价表明,决策者对于目前的出口状况感到满意,现在会将重点转向提振进口,他称此举“完全出乎意料”。

他还表示:“政策制定者可能正采取措施,提高人民币中间价的波动性,以加剧市场不确定性,这与中国的最终改革目标一致,就是建立一个交易相对自由的市场。”

其次,巴克莱(Barclays)分析师指出,央行的外汇买入行为“最近几个月大幅放缓。”这表明,资本流入减少,包括中国央行希望挡住的投机资本。

上周,巴克莱估计,今年4月,中国有超过80亿美元资金流出,而在那之前的6个月中,有1400亿美元资金流入中国。

这些分析师在中国央行确定人民币中间价之前写道,为了阻止人民币将继续贬值的预期,中国央行可能会利用人民币中间价和外汇干预,“管理近期人民币贬值程度(并)避免人民币大幅贬值的预期。”

泰汉伊建议密切关注人民币每日中间价,来了解中国央行的真正意图。

“未来几天,我们将看得更清楚,中国央行这种主动的定价行为,是试图增强人民币的中间价波动性(这会在即期交易中产生连锁反应),还是说政策制定者的定价趋势出现逆转。”

译者/梁艳裳

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