【英语财经】曲线投资新兴消费市场 For exposure to EM consumer, think Japanese tyre maker, Chin …

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2014-6-12 17:13

小艾摘要: Developing countries have seen tens of millions of their people emerge from poverty into the middle class, and everyone wants a piece of the action. Every entrepreneur or multinational has an angle on ...
For exposure to EM consumer, think Japanese tyre maker, Chin ...
Developing countries have seen tens of millions of their people emerge from poverty into the middle class, and everyone wants a piece of the action. Every entrepreneur or multinational has an angle on how to tap into the emerging consumer’s new spending power, and investors have been pouring into consumer stocks. The trouble is, all this exuberance has already been priced into many valuations. The challenge now is how to find less obvious ways to gain exposure to the emerging consumer at a better price.

At the high end, enthusiasm about China’s allegedly endless appetite for luxury brands is pushing up stocks like LVMH, which now trades at about 3.5x book value on the hope of rapid growth.

In the mass market, a company like Tingyi, China’s dominant instant noodle and beverage firm, trades at 9x book value – compared with about 2x for the MSCI Emerging index. Brazilian-listed tobacco company Souza Cruz trades at an eye-watering 18 times book value. These valuations don’t take into account the fact that growth in demand ultimately faces a natural limit: we can only eat so many bowls of noodles and smoke so many cigarettes, however much we may love them.

While there are few obvious bargains left in emerging consumer stocks, we believe that there are still pockets of opportunity in related sectors. One example is Chinese property developer Evergrande Real Estate.

Some of the steam has come out of Chinese property stock prices recently amid concerns about the potential for excess and fears that the government might act to contain the exuberance or try to limit speculation on housing because it creates income disparities. Evergrande, rather than tapping into high-end consumption, is doing something boring that the government likes. It has prioritised developments in so-called third-tier cities. In these cities (the sort that house mere millions of people, rather than tens of millions, and don’t even show up on maps made three years ago) there’s a tremendous need for housing for workers as the country urbanises. The government has made a clear commitment for an extended period of time to support an increase in this housing stock.

We think that an alternative way to tap into emerging consumption is to try and sidestep the hype and buy the companies that sell inputs to consumer-goods manufacturers. An example is Japanese-listed tyre maker Sumitomo Rubber.

China has recently outstripped the US as the world’s biggest consumer of cars, yet there are few publicly-listed pure-play Chinese automobile manufacturers. The market leader, SAIC, is only listed in the A-share market, which is off-limits to many foreigners. The number two player, FAW Group, is state-owned and not listed. On the other hand, Sumitomo has a rapidly growing business in China and is solidly profitable. Concerns about the outlook for Japan weigh on its valuation, leaving it priced well below its competitors.

Another indirect source of exposure to the emerging consumer is financials. Companies that provide consumer financing aren’t seeing the same magnificent valuations as those that sell final goods. Consumers in many of these markets are relatively “underleveraged”. For example, Brazil’s consumer borrowing currently amounts to about 30 per cent of GDP and Turkey’s is 16 per cent, compared with an emerging-market average of 63 per cent of GDP. (In the US it’s about 130 per cent.)

One name we still consider attractive is Banco do Brasil, which has been expanding rapidly in secured consumer lending such as auto loans and payroll loans (where the servicing costs are deducted directly before consumer receive their pay cheques). This is highly profitable business: Banco do Brasil’s net interest margin on consumer lending is about 16 per cent, compared with about 6 per cent on business and agribusiness lending.

There are comparable examples in India, where banks such as Punjab National Bank, Bank of India and Allahabad bank are catering to a growing middle class.

In summary, while the obvious bargains have already been snapped up, with a bit of lateral thinking investors should still be able to glean attractive returns from emerging consumption growth for the foreseeable future.

Morgan Harting is a senior portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein

发展中国家已有数千万人摆脱贫困,加入中产阶层,而每个人都想从这一进程中分得一杯羹。关于如何利用新兴消费者新近获得的消费能力,每个企业家或跨国公司都有着自己的视角,投资者一直源源不断地涌入消费股。问题是,许多股票的估值已经把这一片繁荣景象都考虑在内了。如今的挑战在于,如何找到一些较为迂回的途径,以更优惠的价格获得对新兴消费者的敞口。

高端市场上,围绕中国对奢侈品品牌所谓的无止尽需求的热情,正推高LVMH等集团的股价。基于迅速增长的预期,这只股票现在的交易价格大约是其账面价值的3.5倍。

大众市场上,康师傅(Tingyi)这样一个公司的股价与账面价值之比为9倍,而摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Market index)的这一比率为2倍。康师傅是中国占主导地位的方便面与饮料公司。巴西上市烟草公司Souza Cruz的股价与账面价值之比已经达到了令人难以接受的18倍。这些估值并没有考虑到需求增长最终面临自然极限:我们能吃的碗面,能抽的香烟都是有限的,不管我们有多么热爱它们!

尽管新兴消费类股票中剩下的显而易见的“便宜货”已寥寥无几,但我们相信,相关行业仍存在大把的机会。其中一个例子便是中国房地产开发商恒大地产(Evergrande Real Estate)。

最近,由于担心房地产股价格可能已经过高,以及政府可能会采取行动遏制房地产繁荣或试图限制房地产投机(因为它导致了收入差距),市场对中国房地产类股票的热情已经部分减弱。恒大地产未涉足高端住宅开发,而是在做一些讨政府欢心的无聊乏味的事情。它正把开发重点放在所谓的三级城市。这些城市仅有几百万而非几千万的人口,在3年前的地图上甚至找不到它们,在这里,城市化进程将推动工人对住房产生巨大需求。中国政府已明确承诺,将在相当长一段时间内支持增建这类住房。

我们认为,利用新兴消费的另一个途径是试着避开宣传热点,买入向消费品制造商出售产品的公司。日本上市轮胎制造商住友橡胶(Sumitomo Rubber)就是一个例子。

中国最近已经超越美国,成为世界最大的汽车消费国,然而,中国已公开上市的纯粹的汽车制造商却寥寥无几。市场领先者上汽集团(SAIC)仅在A股上市,而许多外国投资者都无法投资A股市场。排名第二位的中国一汽集团(FAW Group)是国有公司,尚未上市。而另一反面,住友在中国业务增长迅速,且连续盈利。对日本前景的担忧压低了它的估值,使得它的定价比竞争对手低了许多。

另一个获得对新兴消费者敞口的间接途径是投资金融类公司。提供消费融资服务的公司,目前尚未出现出售终端商品的公司那样华丽的估值。许多这些市场的消费者“负债率”相对较低。例如,巴西消费贷款占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重目前约为30%,土耳其为16%,而新兴市场的平均比重为63%。(美国的比重约为130%。)

我们仍觉得巴西银行(Banco do Brasil)极具吸引力。它在消费担保贷款业务领域扩张迅速,比如汽车贷款与工资日贷款(payroll loans)——这种贷款的利息成本会在消费者收到他们的工资支票前被直接扣减。该业务的利润率非常高:巴西银行消费信贷的净息差约为16%,而工商企业与农业企业贷款的息差则约为6%。

印度也有类似的例子:旁遮普国家银行(Punjab National Bank)、印度银行(Bank of India)与阿拉哈巴德(Allahabad bank)等银行,正在迎合不断壮大的中产阶级的需求。

总的来说,尽管显而易见的“便宜货”已被抢购一空,但如果发挥一些想象力,在可预见的未来,投资者应仍能从新兴消费增长中收获诱人的收益。

作者系联博有限公司(AllianceBernstein)高级投资组合经理。

译者/何黎

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