【英语财经】中国非金融企业债务跃升全球第一 China overtakes US in issued non-financial corporate debt

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2014-6-17 07:56

小艾摘要: China has more outstanding non-financial corporate debt than any other country, says Standard & Poor’s, having overtaken the US last year.Corporate debt issued by Asian borrowers is expected to exc ...
China overtakes US in issued non-financial corporate debt
China has more outstanding non-financial corporate debt than any other country, says Standard & Poor’s, having overtaken the US last year.

Corporate debt issued by Asian borrowers is expected to exceed that of North America and Europe combined by 2016, says the rating agency.

In a report published yesterday, S&P estimates that non-financial corporate debt in China reached $14.2tn at the end of 2013, compared with $13.1tn in the US.

From now until the end of 2018 Chinese companies are expected to borrow $20tn, a third of corporates’ debt requirements globally, a trend supported by the increased willingness of the Chinese authorities to allow more government-related entities to issue debt securities. China’s non-financial corporate issuance accounts for about 30 per cent of the global total. Up to one-third of this is sourced from the informal banking sector, according to S&P, which argues that therefore as much as a tenth of global corporate debt is exposed to a risk of a contraction in China’s shadow banks.

“The concern is that if China did experience a faster slowdown, property prices came off and there was an issue in the shadow banking sector, that would have significant knock-on effects globally,” said Paul Watters, head of corporate credit research at S&P.

The rating agency expects non-financial corporate issuers to seek up to $60tn in new debt and refinancing between now and the end of 2018, and that Asia-Pacific issuers will make up half. By this point Asia-Pacific would account for more than half the $72tn in projected debt outstanding, resulting in heightened global corporate credit risk, given the larger share of emerging market debt in the total.

“Gradually, there will be an increase in bond issuance [from these countries] sold to institutional investors,” said Mr Watters. “The most relevant issue for investors is what is the pace of disintermediation.”

S&P points to an additional risk in Asia-Pacific: that real estate sector debt has ballooned over the past five years, up 84 per cent. The energy sector showed the fastest growth in debt issuance over the period. In Asia-Pacific energy companies’ debt more than doubled. It grew 73 per cent in North America and more than 50 per cent in Europe.

The report also highlights the trend for European companies to increasingly access debt markets for financing, as bank lending in the region continues to contract. Capital market funding costs in the region remain at historic lows for higher rated borrowers, and non-financial companies have raised $530bn in the European bond markets over the past five years.

标准普尔(Standard & Poor)称,中国已超过美国,成为全球未清偿非金融企业债务最多的国家。

这家评级机构表示,到2016年,亚洲借款者发行的企业债务预计将超过北美和欧洲之和。

在昨天发布的一份报告中,标普估计,2013年底中国非金融企业债务达到14.2万亿美元,美国则为13.1万亿美元。

从现在到2018年底,中国企业预计将借款20万亿美元,占全球企业借债需求的三分之一。中国官方更愿意让更多政府相关实体发行债务证券,进一步支持了这种趋势。中国的非金融企业债务发行量占全球总量的约30%。标普称,这些债务最多有三分之一是从非正式银行部门获得的,该机构据此表示,最多有十分之一的全球企业债务面临中国影子银行萎缩的风险。

“担忧在于,如果中国经济放缓确实加剧,房地产价格下跌,影子银行出现问题,那将在全球产生显著的连带影响,”标普企业信贷研究主管保罗?沃特斯(Paul Watters)表示。

标普预计,从现在到2018年底,非金融企业将寻求发行最多60万亿美元的新债和再融资,其中亚太发行人将占一半。到那时,预计未偿还债务将达72万亿美元,亚太将占超过一半的比例。鉴于新兴市场债务占总量份额更高,这将使得全球企业信贷风险升高。

“(这些国家)向机构投资者发行的债券将逐渐增加,”沃特斯表示,“对投资者来说,最相关的问题是非中介化的速度有多快。”

标普指出,亚太还有一个额外风险:房地产行业债务过去5年不断膨胀,飙升84%。能源行业的债务发行量增速则是同期最快的。在亚太地区,能源企业的债务翻了一番还多。北美能源企业债务增幅为73%,欧洲则为50%。

报告还凸显出一个趋势:随着欧洲银行放贷持续萎缩,欧洲企业加大了债市融资。对于评级较高的借款企业而言,欧洲的资本市场融资成本仍处于历史低位,过去5年非金融企业已在欧洲债市融得5300亿美元。

译者/刘鑫

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