【英语财经】巴克莱:地缘政治成投资者最大担忧 Geopolitics climbs to top of investors’ risk list

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2014-6-25 06:26

小艾摘要: Politics has replaced economics as investors’ biggest fear. That’s the message from the latest survey of investors by Barclays.As data from the bank show, geopolitics is now cited as the biggest ris ...
Geopolitics climbs to top of investors’ risk list
Politics has replaced economics as investors’ biggest fear. That’s the message from the latest survey of investors by Barclays.

As data from the bank show, geopolitics is now cited as the biggest risk to financial markets over the next 12 months, eclipsing worries over emerging market economies that topped the survey in the first quarter.

Geopolitics comes in ahead of weak China/EM growth, Fed policy withdrawal, weak DM growth, de-anchoring of inflation expectations and eurozone tensions as risk factors.

With a rebel alliance threatening to pull Iraq apart, it is arguably little surprise that geopolitics has moved to the front of the worry queue for investors.

The current low level of volatility across currency, bond and equity markets suggests investors have been scrambling to locate potential clouds on the horizon.

Indeed, the survey from Barclays shows anxiety that faster US growth will force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected is no longer a major concern.

That, according to analysts at Barclays, is a potential worry in itself.

The bank comments: “This suggests that surprises on the macro front [for example, growth, inflation or monetary policy] could be more damaging than commonly perceived.”

Barclays’ survey of more than 900 of its customers between June 16 and 20 also found equities remain the asset class of choice over the next three months.

政治已取代经济,成为投资者最大担忧。这是巴克莱(Barclays)最新投资者调查所传达的信息。

该银行的数据显示,地缘政治现在被列为未来12个月金融市场面临的最大风险,超过了排在第一季度调查首位的对新兴市场经济体的担忧。

排在地缘政治之后的风险因素是中国/新兴市场增长疲弱、美联储(Fed)政策退出、发达市场增长疲弱、通胀预期失去锚定以及欧元区紧张局势。

在反叛联盟可能分裂伊拉克之际,地缘政治成为投资者的首要担忧也许并不令人意外。

目前外汇、债券和股票市场的低波动性表明,投资者正忙于寻找地平线上可能出现的乌云。

的确,巴克莱的这项调查显示,投资者对于美国增速加快将迫使美联储早于预期加息的焦虑,已不再是主要担忧。

据巴克莱分析师称,这本身潜在是一个令人担心的问题。

巴克莱认为:“这似乎表明,宏观方面(例如增长、通胀或货币政策)的意外发展可能要比一般预期的更具破坏性。”

巴克莱的这项调查是在6月16日至20日针对逾900家客户进行的。调查发现,过去3个月,股票仍是投资者青睐的资产类别。

译者/梁艳裳

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