【英语财经】国际清算银行呼吁各国央行加息 ‘Euphoric’ capital markets are out of step with financial reality, warns BIS

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2014-7-1 01:37

小艾摘要: The Bank for International Settlements has warned that “euphoric” financial markets have become detached from the reality of a lingering post-crisis malaise, as it called for governments to ditch po ...
‘Euphoric’ capital markets are out of step with financial reality, warns BIS
The Bank for International Settlements has warned that “euphoric” financial markets have become detached from the reality of a lingering post-crisis malaise, as it called for governments to ditch policies that risk stoking unsustainable asset booms.

While the global economy was struggling to escape the shadow of the crisis of 2007-09, capital markets are “extraordinarily buoyant”, the Basel bank said, in part because of the ultra-low monetary policy being pursued around the world.

Leading central banks should not fall into the trap of raising rates “too slowly and too late”, said the BIS, the bank for central banks, calling for policy makers to halt the steady rise in debt burdens around the world and embark on reforms to boost productivity.

In its annual report, the BIS also warned of the risks brewing in emerging markets, setting out early warning indicators of possible banking crises in a number of jurisdictions, including most notably China.

“Particularly for countries in the late stages of financial booms, the trade-off is now between the risk of bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle and that of suffering a bigger bust later on,” it said.

The BIS has long been a sceptic about the benefits of ultra-stimulative monetary and fiscal policies and its latest intervention reflects mounting concern that the rebound in capital markets and real estate is built on fragile foundations.

The report comes days after the Bank of England became the first big central bank to raid its new macroprudential toolkit to stop a credit boom in the housing market from derailing the UK’s economic recovery. The BoE hopes its restrictions on riskier forms of mortgage lending will tame any property bubble without damaging growth. But the BIS warned that deploying macroprudential tools, which central banks have adopted, was a poor substitute for higher rates.

“These tools have proved very helpful in increasing the resilience of the financial system, but they have been only partially effective in restraining the build-up of financial imbalances,” the BIS said. “Failing to rely on monetary policy can raise even more serious challenges down the road.”

The BIS’s view on interest rates is at odds with the stance of the International Monetary Fund, which this month called on the European Central Bank to ease monetary policy by embarking on large-scale asset purchases, should the threat of a dangerous bout of falling prices persist.

“Good policy is less a question of seeking to pump up growth at all costs than of removing the obstacles that hold it back,” the BIS argued, saying the upturn in the global economy was a precious opportunity for reform.

Global markets are “under the spell” of central banks and their unprecedented monetary policy settings, it said.

The Vix index of US share price volatility, known as the Wall Street fear gauge, has fallen to a seven-year low, while the FTSE all-world share index is 150 per cent above its March 2009 low. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries, which move inversely with prices, have fallen this year, defying expectations of an end to a 30-year bond market rally.

国际清算银行(BIS)警告称,金融市场近期“过度活跃”,已经脱离了它尚未彻底走出金融危机之后的萎靡的现实。该行同时还呼吁各国政府抛弃可能助长不可持续的资产繁荣的政策。

位于巴塞尔的国际清算银行表示,在全球经济还在竭力走出2007-09年危机的阴影之际,资本市场已变得“异常活跃”,这在一定程度上是由世界各国推行的超低利率货币政策造成的。

扮演“央行的银行”角色的国际清算银行表示,各主要央行不应落入“太慢和太迟”加息的陷阱。该行呼吁政策制定者阻止世界各国债务负担持续攀升,并着手实施以提高生产率为目标的改革。

国际清算银行在年度报告中还就新兴市场正在酝酿的风险发出警告,列出了多个国家或地区可能爆发银行业危机的预警信号,其中最引人注目的是中国。

报告称:“特别是对处于金融繁荣后期的国家而言,现在面临的取舍是,要么冒提前进入经济周期下滑阶段的风险,要么冒以后遭遇更大萧条的风险。”

长期以来,国际清算银行一直对超刺激性货币和财政政策的好处持怀疑态度。该行最近的这次介入反映出,它越来越担心资本市场和房地产的反弹是建立在脆弱的基础上。

报告出炉的数天前,英国央行(BoE)在主要央行当中率先开始使用新型宏观审慎工具,其目的是防止住房市场的信贷繁荣破坏英国的经济复苏。英国央行期望,通过限制高风险形式的抵押贷款,它能够在不损害经济增长的同时驯服可能存在的房地产泡沫。但国际清算银行警告称,央行纷纷采取的宏观审慎举措,无法很好地替代加息。

国际清算银行表示:“这些工具事实上对提高金融系统抗压性非常有用,但对抑制金融失衡加剧只有部分效果。不依靠货币政策,可能导致未来面临更严峻的挑战。”

国际清算银行对利率的看法与国际货币基金组织(IMF)相左。后者本月呼吁,假如价格不断下降的威胁持续存在,欧洲央行(ECB)应通过大规模资产购买行动来放松货币政策。

国际清算银行认为,“好的政策更多地不在于不计代价提振增长,而在于清除阻碍增长的障碍”。该行表示,全球经济的好转为改革提供了宝贵的机会。

国际清算银行表示,全球市场被央行和央行史无前例的货币政策安排“施了魔法”。

衡量美国股市波动性、有华尔街“恐慌指数”之称的Vix指数,已跌至7年低点;富时环球股票指数(FTSE All-World share index)眼下为2009年3月低点的1.5倍。10年期美国国债收益率(与价格变动方向相反)今年下跌,打破了有些人对30年债券市场牛市将于今年结束的预期。

译者/阑天

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