【英语财经】美国通胀保值债券Tips受到追捧 Investors snap up inflation-proofed Treasury bonds

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所属分类:双语财经

2016-3-23 23:05

小艾摘要: Investors have rushed to snap up inflation-proofed US government bonds in the wake of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which analysts say indicated that officials are willing to tolerate higher i ...
Investors snap up inflation-proofed Treasury bonds
Investors have rushed to snap up inflation-proofed US government bonds in the wake of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which analysts say indicated that officials are willing to tolerate higher inflation before tightening monetary policy more aggressively.

The recent recovery of oil prices — a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude last week rose above the $40 mark for the first time since December — has helped support so-called “Tips”, Treasury bonds that are protected against inflation, but the dovishness of the US central bank has poured more fuel on the rally.

“Just when it seemed like Tips had entered an abyss, they threw a surprise party,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts wrote in a research report.

The price of the 10-year Tips bond rallied 1.7 per cent last week, pushing the yield to a one-year low of 0.26 per cent. BlackRock’s flagship Tips exchange-traded fund enjoyed its strongest weekly rally since March 2015.

So-called “break-even rates”, which are often seen as a gauge of expected inflation derived from comparing the yields of conventional and inflation-proof Treasuries, have jumped this month, and climbed even higher in the wake of Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

The 10-year break-even rate rose to 1.62 per cent last week, the highest since December. The five-year rate rose to 1.52 per cent, the highest since last summer. And the two-year climbed to 1.64 per cent — the highest since July 2014.

Rising break-evens reflect a sharp shift in investors’ views on inflation, brought on by the recovery in oil prices, accelerating “core” US inflation — which exceeded expectations for a second month running to climb to an annual rate of 2.3 per cent in February — and the Fed’s increasingly cautious stance.

The Fed now foresees just two quarter-point increases in its interest rate corridor in 2016, compared to four previously, and has pared its forecasts for 2017 and 2018 as well. Money managers say these were significant revisions that indicate a shift in the Fed’s thinking towards stronger acceptance of letting inflation accelerate above its 2 per cent target. Chris Iggo, head of fixed income at Axa Investment Managers, said he now expected the 10-year US break-even rate to climb to 2 per cent.

“The signals are clear,” he wrote in a note to clients. “The Fed is happy to allow core inflation to run higher before it really tightens because of the risk of a weaker international environment having some kind of stalling impact on the stronger US domestic economy.”

Fed chair Janet Yellen hinted at this at the Wednesday press conference. “We are not trying to engineer an overshoot … but it is a symmetric objective,” she said, indicating that officials were as comfortable with inflation accelerating above that mark as staying below.

在上周的美联储(Fed)会议之后,投资者争相买入有规避通胀冲击功能的美国政府债券。分析师表示,此次会议表明美联储官员在更积极收紧货币政策之前,愿意容忍更高的通胀率

近期油价回升:上周,西德克萨斯中质油(West Texas Intermediate, WTI)自去年12月以来第一次升破每桶40美元。这为美国财政部发行的“通胀保值债券”(Tips)提供了支撑,而美联储的鸽派立场更有火上浇油的作用。

“就在Tips似乎跌入深渊之际,他们搞了一场惊喜派对,”美银美林(BoAML)分析师在一份研究报告中写道。

上周,10年期Tips的价格上涨了1.7%,收益率跌至1年来的低点0.26%。贝莱德(BlackRock)的旗舰Tips交易所交易基金(ETF)出现了自2015年3月以来的最大单周涨幅。

盈亏平衡通胀率”(break-even rates)本月以来大幅上升,在上周三的美联储会议之后涨得更高。该通胀率经常被视为预期通胀率的衡量指标,为普通国债和通胀保值国债的收益率之差。

上周,10年期盈亏平衡通胀率上升至1.62%,为去年12月以来的最高位。5年期盈亏平衡通胀率涨至1.52%,为去年夏季以来的最高位。2年期盈亏平衡通胀率涨至1.64%,为2014年7月以来的最高位。

盈亏平衡通胀率上升,反映投资者对通胀的预期发生了显著变化,原因在于油价复苏、美国“核心”通胀率加速上涨——在2月份连续第二个月超出预期,升至2.3%的年率——以及美联储的立场趋于谨慎。

目前,美联储预测,在2016年的利率走廊中将仅仅加息两次,每次25个基点——之前预测为4次——并降低了对2017年和2018年的加息预期。基金经理们表示,这些重大调整表明,美联储的想法变得更愿意容忍让通胀率加速升到2%以上。安盛投资管理公司(Axa Investment Managers)固定收益主管克里斯?伊戈(Chris Iggo)表示,现在他预计10年期美国盈亏平衡通胀率将上升到2%。

“美联储发出了清晰的信号,”他在写给客户的一份报告中称,“他们在真正收紧银根之前愿意允许核心通胀率升得更高,这是因为较弱的国际环境有可能对较强的美国国内经济产生某种抑制作用。”

美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)在上周三的记者招待会上暗示了这一点。她说,“我们并不试图引导通胀率超标……但这是一个均衡的目标。”这是暗示不论通胀率加快上升到目标水平之上,还是保持在目标水平之下,美联储官员们都是可以接受的。

译者/邢嵬

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