【英语财经】日元未降反升 未理睬官方努力 Soaring yen defies Tokyo’s effort to spur growth and head off deflation

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2016-4-11 19:58

小艾摘要: The yen touched new highs yesterday, defying Tokyo’s effort to weaken the Japanese currency in the latest sign policymakers in leading economies are running out of tools to kick-start growth and batt ...
Soaring yen defies Tokyo’s effort to spur growth and head off deflation
The yen touched new highs yesterday, defying Tokyo’s effort to weaken the Japanese currency in the latest sign policymakers in leading economies are running out of tools to kick-start growth and battle the threat of deflation.

Japanese officials issued warnings about “one-sided” moves, a signal of possible intervention that would usually put traders on high alert. Instead, the yen soared to its highest levels since the Bank of Japan fired its second stimulus bazooka in October 2014.

The yen’s momentum comes despite the Herculean efforts by central banks to spur growth in Asia and Europe. Like the BoJ, the European Central Bank has intervened in capital markets at unprecedented levels to little effect on the EU’s common currency or inflation.

Their task is being made harder by US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, who has signalled a slower pace of interest-rate increases, weakening the dollar. Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting showed many policymakers see “appreciable” risks to the US economy from global turmoil, underscoring the likelihood of a glacial pace of rate rises.

Aggressive monetary policies in general, and negative interest rates in particular, have long been seen as a means to depreciate currencies and raise inflation by increasing the cost of imports. Lower borrowing costs and cheaper currencies are central banks’ primary tools in sparking domestic demand.

But despite the aggressive BoJ and ECB moves, global inflation remains lacklustre, with Japan and the eurozone more exposed to the risk of deflation than other advanced economies.

Mario Draghi, the ECB chief, exceeded expectations in unleashing another round of monetary stimulus last month.

But even the combination of ¢80bn in monthly bond-buying, negative interest rates and an offer to subsidise eurozone bank lending have failed to weaken the European currency.

In Japan, weak growth and easy policy elsewhere continues to push the yen higher, leading investors to question the tools Tokyo has available to force it down again.

“We’re watching the foreign exchange market with a sense of tension, and we’ll take measures as appropriate,” said Yoshihide Suga, chief cabinet secretary. “The government believes excessive and disorderly movements in the exchange rate have a negative effect.”

日元汇率昨日升至新高,未理睬东京方面削弱本币汇率的努力,这一最新迹象表明,领先经济体的政策制定者差不多用尽了启动增长和抗击通缩威胁的工具。

日本官员对“单向”变动发出警告,表明日本政府可能采取通常会让交易员高度警惕的干预。日元汇率反而飙升至自日本央行(Bank of Japan) 2014年10月发射第二支刺激火箭筒以来的最高水平。

日元上涨之际,各国央行正做出巨大努力提振亚洲和欧洲的经济增长。与日本央行一样,欧洲央行(ECB)近期以空前火力干预资本市场,但对单一货币或通胀几乎毫无影响。

美联储(Fed)主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)令其他央行的任务变得更为艰难,她已暗示将放慢加息速度,这削弱了美元汇率。美联储3月利率会议的会议纪要显示,多名政策制定者认为全球动荡令美国经济面临“可观”风险,这突显出美国加息速度可能缓慢。

长期以来,激进的货币政策(特别是负利率)被视为一种压低汇率、并通过增加进口成本来推高通胀的手段。降低借款成本和压低汇率是央行刺激内需的主要工具。

尽管日本央行和欧洲央行采取了激进举措,但全球通胀仍显乏力,日本和欧元区面临的通缩风险超过其他发达经济体。

欧洲央行行长马里奥?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)上月推出另一轮货币刺激计划,超出预期。

然而,即便是每月800亿欧元的债券购买计划、负利率以及补贴欧元区银行放贷,加起来也未能削弱欧元汇率。

在日本,其他国家的疲弱增长和宽松政策继续推高日元汇率,这导致投资者对日本可用的再次压低日元汇率的工具提出质疑。

“我们正带着紧张的心情关注外汇市场,我们将采取适当措施,”日本内阁官房长官菅义伟(Yoshihide Suga)表示,“政府认为,汇率的过度和无序变动具有负面影响。”

译者/梁艳裳

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