【英语财经】3月份中国经济显示趋稳迹象 China stabilises but economists warn on stimulus risk

  • A+
所属分类:双语财经

2016-4-6 23:22

小艾摘要: China’s economy is stabilising after the slowdown of recent months, data suggest, easing worries about a hard landing but raising questions about the government’s commitment to rebalancing.A slump i ...
China stabilises but economists warn on stimulus risk
China’s economy is stabilising after the slowdown of recent months, data suggest, easing worries about a hard landing but raising questions about the government’s commitment to rebalancing.

A slump in manufacturing and property, China’s traditional growth drivers, has slammed global commodity prices and shrunk profits at Chinese groups tied to the old growth model. Planned lay-offs in steel, coal and other overcapacity sectors have led to labour unrest and concern over unemployment.

However, recent data suggest the tide is turning, at least temporarily. The Caixin purchasing managers’ indices for both manufacturing and services rose sharply in March. The manufacturing PMI hit 49.7 in March, its highest level in more than a year and a much better reading than expected. Caixin’s services PMI rose to 52.2 in March from 51.2 in February. The 50-point level separates contraction from expansion.

The latest figures suggest recent stimulus efforts — notably in the property sector — have succeeded in arresting the slowdown.

But stimulus for property risks worsening the economy’s reliance on fixed-asset investment, hindering a transition to consumption- and services-led growth pursued by policymakers. Caixin noted on Wednesday that property was “the main factor driving the recent rebound in investment”.

Property was also the main driver of strong growth in the FTCR Business Activity Index, a newly launched gauge of activity in real estate, exports and logistics from FT Confidential Research. That index rose to 57.9 in March from 50.6 in February, its highest reading since October 2014, even as exports and logistics remained week.

“We expect the uptick in real estate sales to begin feeding through into stronger construction activity in coming months, helping to drive a more broad-based recovery,” FT Confidential wrote.

数据显示,在经历了最近几个月的放缓之后,中国经济正在趋稳。这种局面减轻了人们对“硬着陆”的担忧,但也让人们怀疑政府是否会致力于经济再平衡。

作为中国传统的增长引擎,制造业和房地产业的大幅下滑急剧拉低了全球大宗商品的价格,并导致依赖旧增长模式的中国企业的利润大幅缩水。钢铁、煤炭等产能过剩行业计划中的裁员,已引发了劳工抗议和对失业的担忧。

不过,最近的数据显示这一趋势正在逆转,至少暂时是如此。3月份,财新(Caixin)制造业和服务业采购经理指数(PMI)均呈现显著上升:制造业PMI为49.7,达到一年多来的最高水平,而且也远强于预期;服务业PMI则从2月份的51.2升至52.2。PMI读数以50为荣枯线。

这些最新数字表明,近期的刺激努力——尤其是在房地产行业——已成功遏止了放缓势头。

不过,对房地产业实施的刺激,可能会加剧中国经济对固定资产投资的依赖,阻碍其实现政策制定者所追求的那种向消费及服务业带动型增长模式的转型。

FTCR商业活动指数(FTCR Business Activity Index)的飙升也是主要由房地产业贡献的。这个由英国《金融时报》旗下的《投资参考》(FT Confidential Research)不久前推出的指数,衡量的是房地产、出口和物流行业的活动。尽管出口和物流行业依然疲软,该指数却从2月份的50.6升至3月份的57.9,达到2014年10月以来的最高水平。

《投资参考》写道:“我们预计,房地产销售的攀升会在今后几个月里开始推动建筑活动扩张,帮助带动更广泛的复苏。”

译者/简易

本文关键字:财经英语,小艾英语,双语网站,财经双语,财经资讯,互联网新闻,ERWAS,行业解析,创业指导,营销策略,英语学习,可以双语阅读的网站!
  • 我的微信
  • 扫一扫加关注
  • weinxin
  • 微信公众号
  • 扫一扫加关注
  • weinxin

发表评论

您必须登录才能发表评论!