The world economy is beset by feeble growth and a recovery that is “weak, uneven and in danger of stalling yet again,” according to the latest Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index.
In a publication ahead of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week, the index provides sober reading, highlighting sluggish capital investment, falling industrial production and declining business confidence.
The results of the index are likely to be reflected in IMF forecasts for the global economy on Tuesday, prompting Christine Lagarde, fund managing director, to warn of the need to be “alert”to global risks with growth “too low for too long”. The IMF is widely expected to revise its 3.4 per cent forecast for growth in 2016 down again.
According to Professor Eswar Prasad, an economist at Brookings, the worst fears of a financial and economic crisis in January and February “might be over but after yet another year of tepid growth in 2015, the world economy in 2016 faces the unsettling prospect of more of the same”.
While the IMF has become more pessimistic about the outlook in recent weeks, the Brookings-FT Tiger index — Tracking Indicesfor the Global Economic Recovery — suggests there has been some stabilisation of current conditions after a big decline in growth rates in the second half of last year.
布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)/英国《金融时报》全球经济复苏追踪指标(Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery, TIGER)显示，全球经济增长乏力，复苏“疲弱、不均衡且可能再次停滞”。