【英语财经】油价继续回升 逼近每桶50美元 Brent nears $50 a barrel on supply fears

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2016-5-18 20:22

小艾摘要: The oil price moved closer to $50 a barrel for the first time since November, on growing supply disruptions in Nigeria and a more positive assessment of the market from Goldman Sachs, the most bearish ...
Brent nears $50 a barrel on supply fears
The oil price moved closer to $50 a barrel for the first time since November, on growing supply disruptions in Nigeria and a more positive assessment of the market from Goldman Sachs, the most bearish of leading commodity banks.

Militant threats to pipelines in Nigeria, an important Opec producer, are the latest fillip for an oil price that has also benefited from a booming petrol market and rising demand in India.

Anxiety over supply has also been fanned after Nicolás Maduro, Venezuelan president, announced plans on Friday to extend his government’s emergency powers — a reminder to investors of the deepening political instability in another Opec member.

Supply disruptions globally are likely to average more than 3m barrels a day this month, with Nigerian output at its lowest level in decades.

“Developments in Nigeria and the increasingly tense situation in Venezuela?.?.?.?make a breach of the $50 this week a strong possibility,” said David Hufton of PVM, an oil broker.

Brent, the global crude benchmark, jumped more than 3 per cent to $49.47, a six-month high. Meanwhile West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, rose 3.2 per cent to $47.72.

The spectre of diminished supply and strengthening demand was enough to prompt Goldman analysts to lift their forecast for WTI. They said the US benchmark would average $45 a barrel during the second quarter, up from an estimate of $35 in March.

Brent has rallied more than 75 per cent since hitting a low for the year in late January, helped by supply disruptions and a conviction among investors that the market will rebalance this year as demand improves and high-cost producers curb output.

Last week the International Energy Agency, one of the leading energy forecasters, said it was more likely to increase than to cut its demand growth forecast because of the booming global petrol market and India’s rising thirst for crude.

Goldman raised its global demand forecast by 200,000 barrels to 1.4bn yesterday, citing strong demand in India.

But the bank was still cautious on the oil outlook, and warned that the market could move into surplus in the first quarter of 2017 because of rising supplies from low-cost Opec producers and fewer supply disruptions.

It was possible oil would be trading at $45 a barrel in the first quarter of next year, the bank added.

Hedge funds and other money managers are growing more nervous about the oil price after the big rally from January lows. Last week they cut their net long position in WTI and Brent — the difference between bets on rising and falling prices — by 18m barrels to 218m.

“Supply is resilient and still growing, particularly with the return of supply from Iran,” said Adam Longson, analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“The latest reports out of US producers are no better and suggest that US production is unlikely to fall as much as the currently low price environment would suggest.”

油价自去年11月以来首次逼近每桶50美元,原因是尼日利亚供应中断日趋严重,同时通常最悲观的主要大宗商品交易银行高盛(Goldman Sachs)对石油市场作出了更为积极的评估。

尼日利亚是重要的欧佩克(OPEC)产油国,武装分子对该国输油管线的威胁给油价带来最新提振;全球油价同时还受益于汽油市场需求旺盛和印度需求增长。

令人对石油供应感到焦虑的另一个因素是,委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯?马杜罗(Nicolás Maduro)上周五宣布延长他领导的政府的紧急权力,这提醒投资者:还有一个欧佩克成员国的政治不稳定在日益加深。

全球而言,本月的供应中断可能达到每日平均300多万桶,目前尼日利亚的产量处于几十年来最低水平。

“尼日利亚的事态,加上委内瑞拉日益紧张的局势……使得油价本周很有可能突破每桶50美元,”石油经纪商PVM的戴维?赫夫顿(David Hufton)表示。

全球原油基准布伦特(Brent)昨日一度跃升逾3%,至每桶49.47美元的六个月高位。同时美国油价基准西得克萨斯中质原油(WTI)一度上涨3.2%,至每桶47.72美元。

供应减少和需求转强的可能前景促使高盛分析师上调其对WTI价格的预测。他们表示,第二季度美国油价基准将达到每桶45美元的平均水平,高于3月估计的每桶35美元。

自1月下旬触及今年低点以来,布伦特原油价格已经反弹逾75%,其推动因素一方面是供应中断,另一方面是投资者深信:随着需求出现起色,随着高成本生产者减产,今年石油市场将实现再平衡。

上周,领先的能源预测机构之一国际能源署(IEA)表示,它更有可能上调(而不是下调)需求增长预测,原因是全球汽油市场需求旺盛,而印度的原油需求不断增长。

高盛昨日将全球需求增长预测上调每日20万桶,至每日140万桶,其理由也包括印度需求强劲。

但该行仍对石油前景持谨慎态度,警告说,市场可能在2017年第一季度进入供应过剩状态,原因包括低成本的欧佩克产油国增加供应和供应中断较少。

该行补充说,明年第一季度油价有可能处于每桶45美元的水平。

继油价从1月份的低谷大幅反弹后,对冲基金和其他资产经理正变得越来越紧张。上周他们削减WTI和布伦特原油净多头头寸(押注价格上涨和价格下跌的头寸之差)1800万桶,至2.18亿桶。

“供应颇有韧性,且仍在增长,特别是在伊朗恢复供应的情况下,”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师亚当?朗森(Adam Longson)表示。

“来自美国生产商的最新报告也没有传递更好的信号,这些报告似乎表明,美国的产量不太可能像眼下低价环境所暗示的那样下降。”

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