【英语中国】流动性枯竭导致中国债券发行停滞

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2013-11-21 10:19

小艾摘要: China Development Bank and fellow state policy lender Agricultural Development Bank of China have had to delay or dramatically reduce Chinese bond issues as the impact of a tight onshore credit market ...
China Development Bank and fellow state policy lender Agricultural Development Bank of China have had to delay or dramatically reduce Chinese bond issues as the impact of a tight onshore credit market begins to be felt.

The China Railway Corporation, another state entity, was forced to delay a deal recently, while well-known private companies including the electric carmaker BYD and internet company Baidu also delayed deals over the summer, according to bankers familiar with the situation.

Issuers are dealing with a string of problems stemming from the drying up of interbank market liquidity, and fierce competition for investors’ funds.

CDB, the policy bank whose credit profile is as good as Beijing itself, was forced last week to cut a proposed Rmb24bn ($3.9bn) deal by 60 per cent and pay a yield of more than 5.5 per cent.

“Chinese 10-year Treasury bond yields are at a six-year high and are up about 100 basis points versus a year ago,” said a bond banker in Beijing. “Corporate bonds are seeing yields rise by 150-200bp.”

The head of fixed income sales and trading at a European bank in Shanghai said the policy banks pre-disclose their issuance plans, so it is easy to see when they delay. “But for most corporations, they just quietly delay their issues.”

“Government and policy banks have suffered the most. Now pressure is coming to corporates,” he added. “It’s going to end pretty ugly unless [the central bank] changes its attitude to liquidity.”

For companies such as banks and insurers, onshore issuance of $26.8bn this year falls short of just the final quarter of last year, with $32.3bn of deals, according to Dealogic. August, September and October this year were particularly weak, although issuance has recovered a little in November.

For other companies issuance this year of $24.5bn is far behind last year’s $39.7bn total.

Zhang Zhi Ming, head of China research at HSBC, said a combination of the slowdown in the economy and the policy responses were exacerbating the funding shortage.

“China is much more funding dependent than in the past – total social financing is set to hit a new record of Rmb18tn-Rmb19tn this year up from the Rmb15.8tn record set last year,” he said.

China’s bond markets have exploded in recent years from next to non-existent before the global financial crisis. The total of non-financial corporate debt outstanding in China is already as large as that in the US, whose bond markets have grown up over decades.

But a big problem for Chinese issuers now is the tougher competition from alternative fixed income investments, such as wealth management and trust products, which offer yields of 8 or 9 per cent and are guaranteed by the issuing banks.

Banks are also doing more interbank business because the current tight supply of liquidity means it creates much higher returns than bonds.

Chinese issuers are papering over the difficulties with more offshore issuance, raising a record $51.6bn outside China so far this year, according to Dealogic, a record figure.

中国两家政策银行——国家开发银行(China Development Bank)和中国农业发展银行(Agricultural Development Bank of China)——不得不推迟或者大幅减少中国债券发行,原因是在岸信贷市场收紧的影响开始显现。

熟悉情况的银行家表示,另一家国有实体——中国铁路总公司(China Railway Corporation)最近被迫推迟一笔交易,而一些知名私企——包括电动车制造商比亚迪(BYD)和互联网公司百度(Baidu)——也在夏天期间推迟了各自的交易。

由于银行间市场流动性枯竭以及争夺投资者资金的竞争激烈,发行人需要应对一系列问题。

国家开发银行的信用与中国政府一样好,但这家政策银行上周被迫将一笔拟议的240亿元人民币(合39亿美元)的发债交易削减60%,并支付超过5.5%的收益率。

北京的一名债券银行家说:“中国10年期国债收益率达到六年以来的最高点,同比上涨大约100个基点。公司债券收益率涨幅达150到200个基点。”

一家欧洲银行在上海的固定收益产品销售和交易主管表示,上述两家政策银行提前透露了他们的发行计划,因此不难在他们推迟的时候看出变化。“但对大部分公司来说,他们只是悄悄地推迟了发行。”

他补充说:“政府和政策银行受到的冲击最大。现在公司开始感受到压力。除非(中国央行)改变其流动性立场,结果将会很难看。”

数据提供商Dealogic统计显示,对于银行和保险商之类的公司来说,今年迄今在岸发行的268亿美元还不及去年第四季度的323亿美元。今年8月、9月、10月尤其不景气,尽管11月的发行略有恢复。

其他公司今年发行的245亿美元也远低于去年397亿美元的总额。

汇丰银行(HSBC)中国研究主管张志明认为,经济放缓和政策回应共同导致资金短缺越来越严重。

他说:“中国比过去更加依赖资金,预计今年社会融资总量将创下18万亿至19万亿元人民币的新纪录,高于去年创下的15.8万亿元人民币的纪录。”

最近几年中国债券市场呈现爆炸式发展,而全球金融危机之前这一市场几乎不存在。中国非金融公司未偿还债务总额已经与美国差不多,而美国债券市场已经发展了几十年。

但现在对于中国发行人来说,一个大问题是来自替代固定收益投资的竞争更加激烈,比如财富管理和信托产品,其收益率达到8%到9%,并且有发行银行担保。

银行也在开展更多银行间业务,因为当前流动性供应较紧意味着,银行间业务能够带来比债券高得多的回报。

Dealogic统计显示,中国发行人正通过更多的离岸发行掩盖这些困难,今年迄今已从境外筹集516亿美元,达到破纪录的水平。

译者/王慧玲

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