【英语中国】短线观点:中国股票便宜吗?

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2013-11-8 13:13

小艾摘要: Investors looking for bargains have a tough job in developed markets. The number of super-cheap deep-value stocks, taking no account of risk, has tumbled to the lowest level since before the rescue of ...
Investors looking for bargains have a tough job in developed markets. The number of super-cheap deep-value stocks, taking no account of risk, has tumbled to the lowest level since before the rescue of Greece in May 2010, according to Société Générale analysts.

Over in China there is no such problem. The nine Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong all trade at a multiple of less than six times expected earnings and half trade below book value. If you think that sounds like a steal, look to the mainland’s stock exchanges: all but two of the dual-listed banks are even cheaper in their mainland-traded A-shares than the Hong Kong-listed H shares.

The same goes for Chinese dual-listed stocks in general. Mainland-listed shares, hard for foreigners to access, have since September sporadically traded at a discount to the same companies listed in Hong Kong and are now at their biggest discount since just before the H shares started a five-month, 30 per cent plunge in February.

Is this cause for concern? Probably not. China’s financial system is in terrible shape and the country’s investment-driven growth model is unsustainable (while its air is increasingly unbreathable). But when this will crack is anybody’s guess. What matters more is what China chooses to do about it.

We should get some clues to the future of China’s banks and state enterprises this weekend. President Xi Jinping and other top Communist party officials will meet and he is expected to offer guidance on economic and financial reform. Dramatic changes to state-owned enterprises are unlikely but policy should become clearer – and that will help determine whether these stocks are cheap or correctly priced disasters.

Investors who do not like the uncertainty of political control have a problem. Aside from the state enterprises and banks, China is not especially cheap. The predominantly private-sector shares listed in Shenzhen are less expensive than they were but at 16 times forward earnings are pricier than developed markets. Bargain-hunting is hard.

投资者要在发达股市寻求便宜股票并非易事。法国兴业银行(Société Générale)分析师表示,在不计风险的情况下,超级便宜的深度价值型股票数量已骤减至2010年5月希腊接受纾困之前以来的最低水平。

但中国股市就不存在这样的问题。9家在香港上市的中资银行,其预期市盈率都低于6倍,且半数市净率低于1。如果你认为这些股票听起来非常划算,那么看看中国内地的股票交易所吧:除了两家银行外,所有在两地上市的银行,其A股甚至比H股还要便宜。

两地上市的中国股票普遍存在这种情况。自9月以来,同一企业的A股(外国人很难买到)价格,偶尔会比其H股价格更低,目前A股对H股的折价幅度达到今年2月以来的最高水平。今年2月,H股开始了持续5个月的下跌,跌幅高达30%。

这应该引起担忧吗?可能不应该。中国金融体系目前状况不佳,而其投资驱动型增长模式也是不可持续的(同时中国的空气正变得越来越不适合呼吸)。但谁也不知道局面何时将会失控。更重要的问题是中国将采取何种对策。

本周末,我们应当能够得到一些有关中国的银行与国企未来走向的线索。届时,中国国家主席习近平将与其他中共最高层官员举行会议,并预计将提出中国经济与金融改革的指导方针。国有企业虽不大可能进行大刀阔斧的改革,但政策应会更加明晰,这将有助于判断中国的国企股与银行股到底是便宜,还是定价正确的灾难。

不喜欢政治控制的不确定性的投资者将很难抉择。除了国企和银行,中国其他企业的股价并非特别便宜。在深圳上市的占主导地位的私营企业,其股价已较以往有所下降,但其16倍的预期市盈率仍高于发达股市。投资者很难找到好买卖。

译者/邢嵬

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