【英语中国】中国制造业增长放缓 China’s manufacturing growth slows as demand for exports weakens

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所属分类:双语中国

2014-1-9 15:17

小艾摘要: Growth in China’s manufacturing sector slowed for the first time in six months in December, dragged down by weak demand for Chinese exports, according to an official purchasing manager’s index.The s ...
China’s manufacturing growth slows as demand for exports weakens
Growth in China’s manufacturing sector slowed for the first time in six months in December, dragged down by weak demand for Chinese exports, according to an official purchasing manager’s index.

The state-sponsored PMI fell to 51 in December, down from 51.4 in November, marking a four-month low and highlighting the challenges facing the ruling Communist party as it tries to transform the growth model in the world’s second-largest economy.

“From the overall situation we can predict that the future industrial growth rate will decline, the export growth rate may drop and economic growth is still under downward pressure,” said economist Zhang Liqun in a statement accompanying the release of the PMI index.

An index reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector while a result below 50 marks contraction.

December’s reading shows that Chinese manufacturing as a whole is still growing but in the crucial export sector producers saw a contraction last month for the first time since July.

The survey showed that new export orders contracted in December with the export sub-index coming in at 49.8, compared with November’s 50.6. That was the first contraction in export orders since July.

Slowing demand from abroad comes as Beijing embarks on a series of complex and difficult reforms in an attempt to shift the Chinese growth model away from exports, credit-fuelled investment and construction of infrastructure and real estate.

The plan is to encourage consumption and a more environmentally friendly, service-oriented economy.

But the government also hopes to maintain relatively high rates of growth in order to cushion the impact of wrenching change as it seeks to make China’s economy more balanced and sustainable.

In his first new year’s address to the nation as president on Wednesday, Xi Jinping stressed the need for ongoing reforms in order to make China “rich and strong”.

Growth rates have gradually declined in recent years and last week China’s cabinet predicted the economy would expand 7.6 per cent this year from last year, the slowest rate since 1999, when the economy also grew 7.6 per cent.

If the slowdown continues next year and growth drops below 7.6 per cent it will be the slowest since 1990 when China faced international sanctions in the wake of the Tiananmen massacre.

Apart from concerns about potential weakness in the manufacturing sector, Beijing has to contend with a steep rise in debt built up by state enterprises and local governments since the 2008 global financial crisis.

The explosion in credit has fuelled a construction and real estate boom across the country that many analysts fear would cause a sharp slowdown if it were to come to an abrupt halt.

The burgeoning debt load has also created stresses in the country’s money markets, with liquidity shortages leading to spikes in interbank lending rates in June and again in recent weeks.

China’s central planning agency pledged this week to rein in the “disorderly expansion” of debt, particularly at the local government level, where a national audit published this week showed there has been a rapid expansion in borrowing in the past two years.

中国官方公布的去年12月份采购经理指数(PMI)显示,中国制造业增长6个月来首次出现放缓,主要受出口需求疲弱的拖累。

中国官方的12月制造业采购经理指数从11月的51.4降至51,这是4个月来的最低位,突显执政的中国共产党在试图转变全球第二大经济体的增长模式时面临的挑战。

中国国务院发展研究中心研究员张立群在分析最新发布的PMI数据时表示,整体来看,“预计未来工业增长率趋降,出口增长率也有可能下降,经济增长仍有一定下行压力”。

PMI指数高于50说明制造业活动处于扩张状态,低于50说明制造业活动处于收缩状态。

2013年12月份的数据显示,中国制造业作为整体仍在增长,但在至关重要的出口行业,生产企业活动自7月份以来首次出现收缩。

PMI调查显示,新出口订单在12月收缩,相应的分类指数为49.8,低于11月的50.6。这是7月份以来出口订单首次收缩。

在来自海外的需求放缓之际,北京方面正启动一系列复杂而艰难的改革,以求转变中国的增长模式,使其减轻对出口、信贷助燃的投资和基建以及房地产的依赖。

中国政府的计划是鼓励消费,打造一个更加环境友好、以服务业为导向的经济。

但政府在努力推动中国经济更加平衡和可持续之际,也希望保持相对较高的增长率,以缓解改革所造成的冲击。

习近平在出任中国国家主席后发表的首篇新年贺词中,强调有必要推进改革,让国家变得“更加富强”。

近年中国经济增长率逐年下降,最近中国国务院预测2013年中国经济同比将增长7.6%,这将是自1999年以来最慢的增长(那一年的增幅也是7.6%)。

如果放缓趋势在2014年延续,经济增速降至7.6%以下,那将是自1990年以来的最慢增长,那时中国在天安门事件发生后受到国际制裁。

除了关于制造业潜在疲弱的担忧外,北京方面还必须应对2008年全球金融危机爆发后国有企业和地方政府快速累积的大量债务。

信贷爆炸性增长在全国各地推动了一场建设大潮和房地产繁荣,许多分析人士担心,如果这场繁荣突然终止,那将引发经济增长剧烈放缓。

越来越沉重的债务负担也在中国货币市场制造了压力,导致2013年6月和12月两度发生“钱荒”,银行间拆借利率飙升。

中国的中央规划机构——国家发改委(NDRC)本周承诺遏制债务“无序扩张”,尤其是在地方政府层面。本周公布的全国审计结果显示,过去两年地方政府债务大幅增加。

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