【英语中国】“中国出境游题材股”走俏 China investors eye hot stocks in renminbi tourist boom

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2014-1-29 09:05

小艾摘要: Take a flight from Bangkok to the Sri Lankan capital Colombo, and you may notice something unexpected at meal time – the menus are printed in Mandarin. It is likely to become a more common sight, as ...
China investors eye hot stocks in renminbi tourist boom
Take a flight from Bangkok to the Sri Lankan capital Colombo, and you may notice something unexpected at meal time – the menus are printed in Mandarin. It is likely to become a more common sight, as millions of Chinese tourists flock to ever farther corners of the globe, writes Josh Noble in Hong Kong.

Airline and hotel operators are not the only ones taking note – investors are looking to tap China’s money belt too.

The appetite was clear in November, when online travel agent Qunar completed its listing on Nasdaq, and nearly doubled on its first day of trade.

The arrival of Chinese tourists on foreign shores is not a new phenomenon, but it appears to be gathering pace. Estimates suggest 100m mainlanders packed their suitcases for overseas jaunts in 2013, up from fewer than 60m in 2010.

According to CLSA analyst Aaron Fischer, the moment where per capita gross domestic product surpasses $8,000 is the “tipping point” after which tourism growth accelerates, based on previous experience in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

China currently has a GDP per head of about $7,000, although it is well above that in some parts of the country.

Mr Fischer estimates that total outbound tourist numbers will reach 200m by the end of the decade, while travel spending will triple.

“We’ve been talking about Chinese tourists for years,” says Mr Fischer. “People think this story is halfway done or two-thirds of the way done. We don’t think so; we think we’re at the beginning part.”

If correct, that should mean more good news for companies with exposure to the tourist renminbi. Gaming stocks have been among the biggest beneficiaries. Galaxy Entertainment – which through its Macau casino now takes more bets per year than the Las Vegas Strip – more than doubled in 2013. Rivals have also rallied.

More obvious regional travel plays have done well too. Sydney Airport’s stock has risen three times more than the Australian index, while Airports of Thailand is up two-thirds in the past 12 months, although it has been hit by recent unrest.

Catherine Yeung, at Fidelity, says the company’s fund managers have looked at a wide range of stocks to play the theme, such as South Korean cosmetics and duty-free retailers, casinos in the Philippines and even Australian education stocks.

“Perhaps China’s largest export in years to come is going to be the Chinese tourist. We’re talking about a huge number of people that are going to be travelling,” she says. But there are doubts about how easy it is to profit from it. Joohee An, who runs an Asia consumer fund at Mirae Asset, says a number of travel-related companies are in sectors with low entry barriers, raising long-term profitability questions. She favours casino and duty-free retail stocks.

Direct exposure is also a problem. For example, Cathay Pacific – one of Mr Fischer’s picks – gets only 10 per cent of its business from Chinese tourists.

China’s domestic politics also poses risks. Luxury goods stocks have been hit hard by China’s crackdown on ostentatious living and by the fickle nature of the luxury consumer. Prada shares have fallen 15 per cent in the past six months.

The bigger worry is simply that the best is already over. SJM Holdings has risen more than 1,300 per cent in the past five years, while Galaxy is up 5,600 per cent. Gaming sector valuations run from 25 times price to earnings up to more than 70 times. But for believers, this is no great concern.

“We can’t just compare the p/e [ratios]”, says Ms An. “It’s all about the potential. I think tourism is one of the best sectors for [positive] surprises.”

搭乘航班从曼谷去斯里兰卡首都科伦坡(Colombo),你或许会在用餐时注意到一件出乎意料的事——菜单是用中文印刷的。随着数以百万计的中国游客成群结队前往地球上更遥远的角落旅行,中文菜单可能会更加普遍。

注意到这一趋势的不只是航空公司和酒店运营商——投资者也希望从中分一杯羹。

这种热切在去年11月展现无遗,当时线上旅行公司“去哪儿(Qunar)”完成了在纳斯达克(Nasdaq)的发行上市,股价在交易首日近乎上涨了一倍。

中国人出境旅游已经不是一个新现象,但增速似乎正在加快。据估测,2013年有1亿名大陆游客收拾行囊赴海外观光,而2010年这一数字尚不足6000万人。

里昂证券(CLSA)分析师艾伦?费舍尔(Aaron Fischer)指出,韩国、台湾以及日本过去的经验显示,人均GDP达到8000美元将是一个“引爆点”,超过这一点后,旅游市场就会加速膨胀。

目前中国人均GDP约为7000美元,但某些地区已经远远超过了这一水平。

费舍尔预计,到2020年,中国出境游客人数将达到2亿人,而旅游支出将增长两倍。

费舍尔表示:“多年来我们一直在谈论中国游客。有人认为这个故事已经进行了一半或三分之二,但我们不这么认为,我们认为现在还在开头部分。”

如果费舍尔的判断正确,那么能赚取人民币旅游收入的企业将迎来更多的好消息。博彩企业的股票是其中最主要的受益方之一。银河娱乐(Galaxy Entertainment)股价2013年涨幅超过一倍——该公司澳门赌场每年收到的下注数量比拉斯维加斯大道(Las Vegas Strip)上所有的赌场还要多。其竞争对手的股价同样大涨。

更具地区旅游特征的个股同样表现喜人。悉尼机场(Sydney Airport)股价的涨幅较澳大利亚大盘指数涨幅高出了三倍以上,而泰国机场公司(Airports of Thailand)在过去12个月中上涨了三分之二,虽然该股因为泰国近期的骚乱受到了冲击。

富达(Fidelity)投资总监Catherine Yeung表示,富达的基金经理们考察了涉及中国出境游题材的多种个股,例如韩国的化妆品制造商以及免税零售商,菲律宾的赌场,甚至澳大利亚的教育类个股。

她说:“未来许多年内,或许中国输出最多的将是中国游客。我们所说的是,数量庞大的中国人将会出国旅行。”但也有人质疑从这一趋势中获益是否那么容易。Joohee An负责管理未来资产(Mirae Asset)旗下的一家亚洲消费基金。她表示,许多与旅游相关的行业门槛很低,这使其中企业的长期盈利能力受到了质疑。她更偏爱赌场及免税零售类个股。

能在多大程度上直接获益同样是个问题。例如,国泰航空(Cathay Pacific)——费舍尔推荐的个股之一——仅有10%的业务来自中国游客。

中国国内政治形势同样构成风险因素。中国打击炫耀性消费的举措,加上奢侈品消费者随时变化的口味,近期就沉重打击了奢侈品个股。普拉达(Prada)的股价在过去6个月中下跌了15%。

更值得担忧的是,最好的时期或许已经过去。澳门博彩控股(SJM Holdings)在过去五年中涨幅超过1300%,同期银河娱乐的涨幅高达5600%。博彩板块的估值水平从25倍市盈率上升到了超过70倍。但对于坚定看好的人来说,这一点并不值得过分忧虑。

Joohee An指出:“我们不能仅仅比较市盈率。关键在于增长潜力。我认为旅游业将是有望带来惊喜的最优行业之一。”

译者/马拉

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