【英语中国】中国楼市难题的深圳样本 Shenzhen property heads for dizzy heights

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所属分类:双语中国

2014-2-26 08:55

小艾摘要: Dozens of small fish lie basking in the sun on the roof of a penthouse apartment in Shenzhen that is on the market for about 20 per cent more than when it last sold in 2012.The roof has been commandee ...
Shenzhen property heads for dizzy heights
Dozens of small fish lie basking in the sun on the roof of a penthouse apartment in Shenzhen that is on the market for about 20 per cent more than when it last sold in 2012.

The roof has been commandeered by the neighbours to dry the fish for their dinner as the owner waits for a buyer to pay Rmb40m ($6.6m) for the property in Portofino, one of the most expensive areas in the southern Chinese city.

With loud chandeliers and deep red furnishings, the tuhao – a phrase used to mock the nouveau riche in China – apartment was originally sold for Rmb18m in 2007 and again for Rmb33m in the summer of 2012.

The price jump over the past seven years underscores how the dazzling growth in China’s property market has spread from Beijing and Shanghai to major cities throughout the country including Guangzhou and Shenzhen in south China.

The Chinese government on Monday said new home prices in Shenzhen rose 18.2 per cent in January from a year ago, just slower than the three fastest-growing markets which were Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.

KK Lai, China head for Centaline Property, says Shenzhen is a hot market because of the number of entrepreneurs in industries such as technology and ecommerce. Foxconn, Huawei and Tencent are all based in Shenzhen, which was a rural fishing county when Deng Xiaoping launched his economic reforms there in 1979.

“There are a lot of big money people here?.?.?.?In Shenzhen, luxury homes sell for Hong Kong prices,” says Mr Lai.

Last year 48,000 new homes were sold in Shenzhen at an average price of Rmb21,626/sq m, a 14.5 per cent increase over the previous year. The secondary market saw even stronger growth, with prices rising more than one-fifth to an average of 27,300/sq m, according to Centaline.

The rise in costs in Shenzhen mirrors a problem that the Communist party is facing across China. The surge in housing costs is pricing many – particularly young – people out of the market and raising concerns about maintaining social stability.

But efforts to cool the market risk causing a hard landing that would endanger the Chinese economy, given the central role of property in fuelling construction spending and serving as banking collateral.

While the central government has introduced policies to spur housing supply and tame speculative buying, many of the measures have not been fully implemented.

Shenzhen boasts one of the highest per capita income levels in China. But even still, Centaline says buyers have to spend as much as 20 times their annual salary of Rmb64,000 to buy a property. Young couples can often only afford homes when both work, and even then must pay Rmb96,000 a year on the mortgage.

Carrie Ouyang, who owns a fashion business, is one of the luckier ones. Back in 2010, she bought a 100m sq apartment near Qianhai, a new economic zone in the city, for Rmb16,000/sq m. Similar flats in the area now sell for 175 per cent that price, making it one of the steepest climbing markets in Shenzhen.

Sitting alongside her friend Yumi, who co-owns a bar called Rapscallions but has not managed to buy an apartment yet, she says: “Most people have problems buying.”

Mr Lai at Centaline says that when economic migrants come to Shenzhen, “their first dream is to get a house?.?.?.?[but] the average person cannot get this dream”.

Samuel Kong, managing director of Midland Realty in Shenzhen, says the local market was propelled by the central government’s Rmb4tn stimulus package after the global financial crisis.

Shenzhen has introduced some cooling measures since 2010, including restricting the number of homes non-residents can buy, which Mr Kong says had some impact. But he points out that Shenzhen did not implement other measures unveiled by the central government last year, partly because of the potential impact on public revenues as it was building lots of new highways and a new airport.

However, Centaline and Midland both reckon that Shenzhen might follow Shanghai and Chongqing this year by introducing property taxes, though these levies have so far been very limited in scope.

One thing Mr Kong and Mr Lai agree could have a big impact on the luxury market is a possible push to force government officials to register properties they own.

In 2012, Beijing vowed to move ahead with the policy, which has not yet been implemented. But there is growing speculation that Beijing might finally act as President Xi Jinping pushes various campaigns to clamp down on corruption.

“It will definitely have an impact on property prices, as we can imagine that many officials probably have many properties not from their official income, so they will try to sell before this policy is implemented,” says Mr Kong. “The policy was supposed to be launched in 2013, but many local governments resisted it.”

Mr Lai says it would push a lot of money from the property market to other areas since government officials own most of the luxury apartments in Shenzhen.

“It is illegal to have so many properties at [their] salary, so they have to sell out,” says Mr Lai. “After they sell out, they will buy diamonds, they will buy something you cannot calculate.”

Additional reporting by Julie Zhu

在深圳一套顶层豪华公寓的屋顶上,暴晒着几十条小鱼。这套公寓已挂牌出售,价格比2012年上一次易手时高出大约20%。

这套公寓位于深圳最昂贵的小区之一波托菲诺(Portofino)。眼下其屋顶被邻居占用来晒鱼。业主正等待一个买家支付4000万元人民币(合660万美元)买下这套公寓。

这套“土豪”(中国人用来调侃新贵的一个词)公寓最初在2007年以1800万元人民币出售,随后在2012年夏又以3300万元人民币出售。其内饰包括花哨的吊灯和深红色的家具。

过去7年里的这一价格飙升,突显出中国房地产市场令人晕眩的价格上涨已从北京和上海蔓延至全国各大城市,包括华南的广州和深圳。

中国政府周一表示,1月深圳新建商品住宅价格同比上涨18.2%,仅次于三个上涨最快的市场(北京、上海和广州)。

中原地产(Centaline Property)中国大陆区总裁赖国强(K.K. Lai)表示,深圳市场火爆,是因为科技和电子商务等行业的企业家云集该市。富士康(Foxconn)、华为(Huawei)和腾讯(Tencent)的总部都设在深圳,而邓小平在1979年启动经济改革时,这里只是一个渔村。

“这里有很多大富豪……在深圳,豪宅要卖到香港的价格,”赖国强表示。

中原地产的数据显示,去年深圳出售了4.8万套新建住宅,均价达到每平方米21626元人民币,比上年高出14.5%。二级市场的涨势更为迅猛,均价上涨逾五分之一,至每平方米2.73万元人民币。

深圳房价的上涨是中共在全国面临的一个问题的缩影。住房价格飙升正使很多人——尤其是年轻人——因根本买不起房产而退出市场,由此引发有关维护社会稳定的担忧。

但是,考虑到房地产在推动建筑支出以及作为银行抵押品方面的核心作用,为市场降温的努力有可能造成硬着陆,危及中国经济。

虽然中国中央政府出台了相关政策,以刺激住房供应,抑制投机性买房,但许多措施还没有完全落实。

深圳是中国人均收入最高的城市之一,年人均收入达到6.4万元人民币。但即使如此,据中原地产介绍,购房者也得拿出20倍于这个数字的资金才能买房。年轻夫妇往往只能在两个人都工作的情况下才买得起自己的安乐窝,而且即使如此,也要每年支付9.6万元人民币偿还抵押贷款。

拥有一家时尚企业的欧阳嘉莉(Carrie Ouyang,音译)属于比较幸运的人。2010年,她以每平方米1.6万元人民币的价格,在深圳新经济区前海附近买了一套100平方米的公寓。如今该地段类似公寓的售价为当年价格的175%,使其成为深圳涨势最陡峭的市场之一。

欧阳表示:“大多数人都觉得很难买得起。”她身旁坐着她的朋友余咪(Yumi,音译),余咪和人共同拥有一个名叫Rapscallions的酒吧,但尚未成功购房。

中原地产的赖国强表示,当经济移民来到深圳时,“他们的第一个梦想是能有自己的房子……(但)一般人实现不了这个梦想”。

美联物业(Midland Realty)深圳及惠州区董事总经理江少杰(Samuel Kong)表示,当地市场受到全球金融危机后中央政府出台的4万亿元人民币刺激计划的推动。

深圳自2010年以来出台了一些降温措施,包括限制非居民可以购买的住宅数量;据江少杰介绍,此举有一定效果。但他指出,深圳没有落实中央政府去年出台的其他一些措施,部分原因是它们对地方财政收入有潜在影响;当地政府正在建造多条新的高速公路和一座新机场。

然而,中原和美联两家都估计,深圳今年可能会效仿上海和重庆,开征房产税——尽管这些税的适用范围迄今非常有限。

江少杰和赖国强都认为,有一个举措可能对高端市场产生重大影响,那就是高层可能要求政府官员登记名下拥有的房产。

中央政府在2012年誓言推进该政策,可迄今尚未落实。但有越来越多的人猜测,随着中国国家主席习近平发起多方面的努力打击腐败,中央政府可能最终会采取行动。

“这必将对房价产生影响,因为我们可以想像,很多官员很可能有很多房产不是用自己的正式收入买下来的,因此他们将试图在这项政策实施之前卖掉房产。”江少杰表示,“该政策原定在2013年推出,但许多地方政府抵制它。”

赖国强表示,这将促使大量资金从楼市流向其他领域,因为政府官员拥有深圳的大多数豪华公寓。

“就凭他们的工资,名下有这么多房产肯定是非法的,因此他们只能抛售。”赖国强表示,“卖掉房产后,他们会买钻石,买你无法估算其价值的东西。”

朱莉(Julie Zhu)补充报道

译者/何黎

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