【英语中国】中国一季度外汇储备升至新高 China’s rising FX reserves: proof in the pudding

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2014-4-15 19:42

小艾摘要: China's foreign exchange reserves rose to a new record in the first quarter, confirming the hand of the central bank in the recent weakening of the renminbi.Official data released on Tuesday showed Ch ...
China's rising FX reserves: proof in the pudding
China's foreign exchange reserves rose to a new record in the first quarter, confirming the hand of the central bank in the recent weakening of the renminbi.

Official data released on Tuesday showed China's FX reserves jumped $129bn in the first three months of the year, to hit an all-time high of $3.95tn, writes the FT's Josh Noble in Hong Kong.

The ramp up in reserves coincided with a rapid fall in the renminbi against the US dollar, which many had attributed to deliberate action from the People's Bank of China.

"The rise in FX reserves indicates that, in the face of a structural surplus on the FX market, the PBoC has continued to intervene to prevent the CNY from appreciating in Q1," wrote RBS economist Louis Kuijs

Other data showed that M2 - China's broadest gauge of money supply -rose just 12.1 per cent from a year earlier last month.

ANZ economists noted this the first time that M2 growth moderated to below the target of 13 per cent made in April 2012.

Nomura's Zhang Zhiwei said the drop may be a sign of reduced capital inflows. Analysts at Barclays said it also reflects a high base last year and slower deposit growth.

今年第一季度,中国外汇储备创下新记录,接近4万亿,这证实中国央行最近曾出手干预压低人民币汇率。

周二公布的官方数据显示,今年第一季度,中国外汇储备增加了1290亿美元,达到3.95万亿美元的空前高位。

在中国外汇储备增加之际,人民币兑美元汇率迅速下跌,很多人将这归因于中国央行有意为之。

苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)写道:“外汇储备上升表明,面对外汇市场的结构性盈余,今年第一季度,中国央行继续出手干预,以阻止人民币升值。”

花旗(Citi)经济学家丁爽表示,尽管中国的贸易顺差为77亿美元,但中国3月外汇储备原本可能会增加400亿美元,这表明,中国政府曾大力干预外汇市场。

“外汇储备数据证实,人民币贬值的原因是央行的大力干预,”澳新银行(ANZ)分析师刘利刚在一份报告中称,“这些非冲销式干预不可能长期持续,而且就像外汇储备迅速扩大所显示的那样,可能会弄巧成拙,因此人民币仍面临巨大升值压力。”

其他数据显示,3月份广义货币(M2)余额同比仅增加12.1%。M2是中国衡量货币供应量的最广泛指标。

澳新银行经济学家指出,这是M2增速首次降至2012年4月提出的目标13%以下。

野村证券(Nomura)经济学家张智威表示,M2增速下滑可能表明在人民币贬值之后资金流入放缓。巴克莱(Barclays)分析师表示,这还反映出去年基数较高,同时存款增速放缓。

译者/梁艳裳

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