【英语中国】中国央行考虑改进货币供应量计算方法 China’s Central Bank Looks for Better Monetary-Measuring Too …

  • A+
所属分类:双语中国

2014-4-26 10:03

小艾摘要: Three years after China's central bank unveiled a new measure to calculate the amount of credit in the economy, it may be going back to the drawing board.Pan Gongsheng, a vice governor at the People's ...
China's Central Bank Looks for Better Monetary-Measuring Too ...
Three years after China's central bank unveiled a new measure to calculate the amount of credit in the economy, it may be going back to the drawing board.

Pan Gongsheng, a vice governor at the People's Bank of China, said this week that the financial sector has rolled out so many innovative products in recent years that it has become much more difficult to calculate the nation's money supply.

The PBOC didn't name names, but recent financial innovations have included wealth management products and fast-growing online investment funds like Yu'e Bao -- all of them offering investors higher returns than traditional bank deposits.

Such innovations 'have affected the accuracy, completeness and scientific methodology of money-supply calculations,' Mr. Pan said Thursday at a meeting of financial regulators and academics. 'Hence we need to improve the financial calculation mechanism so as to better serve macro financial regulation and prevent systemic risks.'

Mr. Pan said regulators would set up a unified and comprehensive calculation system for the financial sector, but didn't give further details.

If this all sounds vaguely familiar -- well, it should.

Three years ago, unhappy with its existing tools for measuring domestic credit, the PBOC rolled out what it called total social financing, or TSF, trumpeted as a more representative measure than total bank loans or M2 (broad money supply).

The explanation for the change was a good one: Bank loans are no longer the overwhelming source of credit in China's financial system. Last year, they made up only about 51% of total new financing.

'In recent years our financial aggregates have expanded rapidly along with a diversification of financial institutions,' the PBOC said when it introduced the TSF measure. 'The number of financial products and financial tools has increased amid continuous innovation... There has been a marked upturn in off-balance sheet business, and that is replacing some of the role of bank loans.'

In addition to bank loans, TSF included newer categories such as trust lending, entrusted loans -- or credits between companies -- and bankers' acceptances, to name a few items.

Since its introduction, the TSF measure has faced plenty of controversy in academic circles. Debate has focused on whether the gauge covers enough of the nation's credit, whether it double-counts some components and whether it creates distorted data.

The central bank has defended its calculations, but that hasn't put the issue to rest. Thursday's comments from Mr. Pan seemed to indicate a change of heart at the PBOC.

Economists had mixed reactions to the bank's search for better monetary-measuring methods.

Financial consultant Nicholas Zhu, who works with regulators, smaller banks and the Asian Development Bank, said it's 'absolutely' the case that the PBOC's task is much harder than it used to be.

'What we are seeing is financial innovation' that's making the system far more complex, he said.

Mr. Zhu noted there's a lot of 'financing repackaging' -- or funds that move from one area of the financial system to another, such as through bank and trust company cooperation.

Jurgen Conrad, head of the economics unit at the Asian Development Bank's office in Beijing, said the total social financing gauge in its present form was of limited use.

'There are well known conceptual problems' with TSF, he said. The ADB looks at M2, he said, as well as separate financial segments such as entrusted loans and bankers' acceptances.

Another problem is that the central bank doesn't give a figure for the total stock of social financing, only the incremental portion. Economists say they can work backwards with the data, but often with disappointing results.

'Stock plus flow would be more valuable,' Mr. Conrad said.

The PBOC may be looking to add M3 data -- a broader measure of money supply that includes less liquid assets -- to its current mix. But even that wouldn't satisfy all critics.

'There's actually a need for a change in the way we make monetary policy, ' said Lu Zhengwei, an economist with Industrial Bank in Shanghai. 'We need another framework.'

Mr. Lu said the PBOC should target a key rate for its monetary management effort, much as the U.S. Federal Reserve does. Whether that's the overnight interbank rate or some longer-term rate doesn't matter.

But that would require progress on liberalizing interest rates, which are still partly controlled by the central bank.

'If we have a better measure,' but not a new framework, 'what's the point?' Mr. Lu asked.

中国央行在三年前推出了一项新的指标来计算经济中的货币供应量,而现在或许要重新考虑更好的货币供应量计算方法了。

中国央行副行长潘功胜本周表示,中国金融行业部门近年来已经推出了一系列创新型金融产品,这使得央行更加难以计算中国的货币供应量。

中国央行并未指明是哪些创新型金融产品。不过近来的金融创新包括理财产品以及迅速增长的网上投资基金余额宝等,这些产品向投资者提供的收益率均高于传统银行存款。

潘功胜周四在一次研讨会上表示,这些金融创新影响了货币供应量计量的准确性、完整性和科学性,因此需要完善金融统计框架,更好地支持金融宏观调控和系统性金融风险防范。金融监管机构和专家学者参加了此次会议。

潘功胜还说,监管机构要建立统一、全面、共享的金融业综合统计体系,但他未提供进一步的细节。

这一切听起来似乎很耳熟。事实上也确实是如此。

三年前,由于不满当时衡量国内货币供应量的指标,中国央行推出了被其称为社会融资规模的指标,并称该指标比银行贷款总额或广义货币供应量(M2)更具代表性。

这一改变理由充分:银行贷款不再是中国金融系统的主要信贷源头。去年,银行贷款在新增贷款总量中所占比重仅为51%左右。

中国央行此前在推出社会融资总量这个指标时称,近年来,中国金融总量快速扩张,金融结构多元发展,金融产品和融资工具不断创新,金融机构表外业务大量增加,对贷款表现出明显替代效应。

除了银行贷款,社会融资总量还包括信托贷款、委托贷款和银行承兑汇票等新类别。

自推出以来,社会融资总量在学术界面临诸多争议。争论焦点在于这个指标是否对中国的信贷进行了足够的覆盖,是否存在重复计算情况,以及是否产生了扭曲的数据。

中国央行一直为这个指标进行辩护,但未能平息围绕它的争议。周四潘功胜的言论似乎暗示央行立场已经转变。

经济学家对央行寻求更好的货币供应量计量方法的看法各异。

与监管部门、中小银行和亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)合作的金融顾问Nicholas Zhu说,这“绝对”是因为央行任务的难度比原先更大了。

他说,我们所看到的金融创新令金融系统变得更加复杂。

Zhu指出,现在存在着许多的“融资再包装”,也就是资金从一个金融系统领域流向另一个领域,例如通过银行和信托公司的合作在其间流动。

亚洲开发银行驻北京办公室经济学部门主管康拉德(Jurgen Conrad)说,目前的社会融资规模指标用处十分有限。

他说,“社会融资规模”存在着众所周知的概念性问题;亚洲开发银行盯的是M2以及单独的金融领域,例如委托贷款、银行承兑汇票等等。

另一个问题是,中国央行没有给出社会融资规模的总量数据,只给出过增量部分。经济学家们说,他们可以利用这些增量数据倒推回去,但结果总是令人失望。

康拉德说,总量加上流动规模才比较有价值。

中国央行可能正考虑将广义货币供应量M3加入当前组合,这是衡量货币供应量的更广泛指标,囊括了流动性不那么高的资产。不过就算这样,也无法让所有批评者满意。

兴业银行驻上海经济学家鲁政委说,实际上,现在货币政策的制定途径有必要做出改变。他说:我们需要另一种框架。

鲁政委说,央行应当效仿美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称:美联储)的做法,为其货币管理政策树立起一个至关重要的利率目标。这个关键利率目标是隔夜银行同业拆借利率还是某个更长期利率,这并不重要。

不过,央行要这样做,就需要推进利率自由化进程,而目前利率仍然在一定程度上由央行控制。

鲁政委提出了这样一个问题:如果我们找到一种更好的计量办法,但框架仍是旧有框架,又有什么意义呢?

本文关键字:双语阅读,小艾英语,双语网站,双语中国,实时资讯,互联网新闻,ERWAS,行业解析,创业指导,营销策略,英语学习,可以双语阅读的网站!
  • 我的微信
  • 扫一扫加关注
  • weinxin
  • 微信公众号
  • 扫一扫加关注
  • weinxin

发表评论

:?: :razz: :sad: :evil: :!: :smile: :oops: :grin: :eek: :shock: :???: :cool: :lol: :mad: :twisted: :roll: :wink: :idea: :arrow: :neutral: :cry: :mrgreen: