【英语中国】中国地方GDP与全国数据“差距缩窄” China’s provincial GDP data just got more sensible

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所属分类:双语中国

2014-4-29 16:25

小艾摘要: It looks we are waving goodbye to a source of mirth that has long amused China statistics watchers.The majority of China's provinces have long used to collectively report economic growth numbers that ...
China's provincial GDP data just got more sensible
The majority of China's provinces have long used to collectively report economic growth numbers that somehow exceeded the national figure. But analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch have observed that this long-held discrepancy has suddenly and sharply reduced.

Back in 2011, 29 out of 31 Chinese provinces somehow achieved growth that was higher than the national headline figure.

BofA's Ting Lu has run the numbers for 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, however, and found that China's provinces have, in the last few months, stopped churning out unbelievable numbers.

He writes that while provincial governments collectively produced total GDP figures that were somehow 10.8 per cent higher than the national total for 2013 - a typical discrepancy - in the first quarter of this year, the gap narrowed significantly.

Ting writes:The gap between aggregate provincial GDP and national GDP slightly narrowed to 10.8% in 2013 and then greatly narrowed to just 3.7% in 1Q14.

Local government bosses used to over-report growth, Ting explains, because:The communist party shifted its focus to economic growth from class struggles from [the] late 1970s, GDP growth became the major performance measure for local government officials (especially regarding promotion).

In this regard, we can say the yard-stick competition among local government cadres significantly contributed to the fabrication of GDP data at local levels.

Someone has stamped this old practice out, it seems. Ting believes it is because president Xi Jinping's administration has stopped rewarding "cadres" for high growth numbers.

长期以来,中国各地报告的经济增长数据之和,一直好过全国数据。但美国银行-美林( BofA Merrill Lynch)的分析师发现,这种差距已突然大幅缩窄。

2011年时的官方数据显示,在中国31个地方省份中,有29个省份的经济增速超过全国增速。

美国银行-美林的陆挺在整理了2013年和2014年第一季度的地方政府GDP数据后发现,过去几个月,中国地方省份已不再公布高得令人难以置信的经济数据。

他写道,2013年,地方政府公布的GDP数据之和较全国GDP高出10.8%(这种差距在过去很普遍),但在今年第一季度,两者的差距大幅缩窄。

陆挺写道:“2013年,地方政府GDP之和与全国GDP之间的差距缩窄至10.8%,今年第一季度,更是大幅缩窄至3.7%。”

陆挺解释称,地方政府领导过去夸大数据的原因是,GDP增速一直以来都是衡量地方政府官员政绩(特别是在升迁方面)的主要标准。

“从这点来看,我们可以说,地方政府干部之间的区域竞争,在很大程度上造成了地方政府夸大GDP数据的行为。”

一些地方政府似乎正在放弃这种做法。陆挺认为,这是因为以习近平为核心的中国新一任领导集体不再以经济增长作为奖励干部的依据。

译者/梁艳裳

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