【英语中国】罗宾斯:中国股票“特别便宜” Premier: China looks ‘particularly cheap’

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2014-5-13 06:54

小艾摘要: Premier Asset Management’s Jake Robbins has bought into a Chinese bank in spite of negative sentiment towards the banking sector in the world’s second-largest economy.The manager of the £72.7m Prem ...
Premier: China looks ‘particularly cheap’
Premier Asset Management’s Jake Robbins has bought into a Chinese bank in spite of negative sentiment towards the banking sector in the world’s second-largest economy.

The manager of the £72.7m Premier Global Alpha Growth fund has invested in China Construction Bank (CCB) even though there are fears that more of the country’s banks will be forced to take losses on bad loans. The government has indicated several times that it is prepared to let loans and bonds default in order to improve the Chinese bond market.

Mr Robbins says: “CCB shares have been poor and people are concerned that bad loans will pick up, and I think they will overall, but CCB has loan coverage of more than 200 per cent.

“It is currently very profitable with a 20 per cent return on equity, but it is trading at less than book value. The market has priced in a huge blow-up of the Chinese economy.”

The manager had 22 per cent of his portfolio invested in Asia at the end of March 2014 and says China looked “particularly cheap”.

“Valuations there are easy to buy and at very attractive yields,” he adds. “There is a lot of value in emerging markets in general but something needs to change sentiment wise, and I am not sure what that is. Chinese stimulus could do it, but until then it could stay cheap for a bit.”

Mr Robbins also questions the wisdom of asset allocators piling into Europe to back its economic recovery, arguing that it is “difficult to find” good-value opportunities that are not priced as if the economy is going to “blow the lights out”.

He says some industrial companies were reporting results that are “not very good”, which could threaten the fragile cyclical recovery on the continent.

Elsewhere in his portfolio, Mr Robbins has reduced an underweight position in oil and gas stocks through the purchases of three companies specialising in shale-gas development.

The manager has added holdings in Helmerich & Payne and EOG Resources, which are heavily involved in the production of shale gas in the US. He has also bought into Beach Energy, an Australian drilling company at the forefront of that country’s fledgling shale-gas industry.

“Beach Energy was the first company with rights to develop shale-gas drilling in Australia,” Mr Robbins says.

“The issue is trying to ascertain whether that is commercially viable. The Australian government has signed a lot of agreements to sell gas into Asia and is committed to exporting that. It is a high-risk position, but none of that potential from shale gas is in the share price.”

The manager says the improving global economy could prove a positive catalyst for the oil price, while the potential stepping up of sanctions against Russia imposed by Europe and the US could also be positive for the price of oil “in the short term”.

Since Mr Robbins took on the Global Alpha Growth fund in November 2011 it has posted a third-quartile gain of 32.2 per cent, compared with the IMA Global sector average of 35.1 per cent, according to data from FE Analytics.

Nick Reeve is deputy news editor at Investment Adviser

Premier Asset Management的杰克?罗宾斯(Jake Robbins)买入了中国一家银行的股票,尽管市场对全球第二大经济体的银行业的看法较为负面。

罗宾斯是资产达7270万英镑的Premier Global Alpha Growth基金的基金经理。他买入了中国建设银行(CCB)的股票,尽管有些人担心中国银行业将不得不承受坏账损失。中国政府多次表示准备听任问题贷款和债券违约,以改善国内债券市场的环境。

罗宾斯说:“建行股票近来表现不佳,人们担心不良贷款率会升高。我认为,总体上看不良贷款率的确会升高,但建行的不良贷款拨备覆盖率高于200%。

“建行目前利润很高,股本回报率达到20%,但其股价却低于账面价值。市场在定价时已经考虑进去了中国经济大崩盘的可能性。”

2014年3月底,亚洲股票在罗宾斯投资组合中的权重为22%。罗宾斯说,中国股票看起来“特别便宜”。

他补充道:“考虑到现在的估值,中国股票买起来很合算,可带来非常诱人的回报。总体上看,新兴市场蕴含着很多价值,但需要某个因素来推动市场看法向明智的方向发展,我不确定这个因素会是什么。中国出台刺激政策可能会有此效果,但在那之前,中国股票可能会暂时保持在较为便宜的水平。”

罗宾斯还对资产管理者大举配置欧洲资产以支持欧洲经济复苏的主意提出了质疑。他辩称,“很难找到”价值不错的、在定价中不认为欧洲经济将会“熄火”的投资机会。

他说,有些工业企业公布了“不太理想”的业绩,这可能对欧洲脆弱的周期性复苏构成威胁。

就其投资组合的其他部分而言,罗宾斯通过买入三家专事页岩气开发的公司的股票,改变了油气公司股票权重过低的状况。

他增持了Helmerich & Payne和依欧格资源公司(EOG Resources)的股票,这两家公司都积极参与美国的页岩气生产。他还买入了澳大利亚钻井公司海滩能源(Beach Energy)的股票,该公司处于澳大利亚新兴的页岩气行业的最前沿。

罗宾斯说:“海滩能源是第一家有权在澳发展页岩气钻井业务的公司。

“问题在于要努力弄清楚这在商业上是否可行。澳大利亚政府签署了大量向亚洲卖气的协议,并致力于天然气的出口。这确实是一个高风险的押注,不过,页岩气的潜力丝毫没有反映在当前股价中。”

罗宾斯说,全球经济形势不断转好可能对油价构成利好,而欧美可能加大对俄罗斯的制裁,这或许也能“在短期内”对油价构成利好。

FE Analytics的数据显示,自2011年11月罗宾斯接管Premier Global Alpha Growth基金以来,该基金的累计回报率为32.2%,在行业内回报率分布中处于第三四分位,而英国投资管理协会(IMA)全球行业平均回报率为35.1%。

本文作者为英国《金融时报》旗下刊物Investment Adviser的新闻副主编

译者/邢嵬

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