【英语中国】中国增长放缓势头可能比数据显示的更糟 China’s Alternate Reality of Slipping Growth

  • A+
所属分类:双语中国

2014-5-14 10:07

小艾摘要: As China's downshift continues, investors should worry that the economy is in even worse shape than meets the eye. Government figures for April paint a dreary picture, led by a slowdown in the all-imp ...
China's Alternate Reality of Slipping Growth
As China's downshift continues, investors should worry that the economy is in even worse shape than meets the eye.

Government figures for April paint a dreary picture, led by a slowdown in the all-important real estate sector. Housing sales this year through April have fallen 10% from a year earlier. Construction starts were down by almost a quarter. Fixed asset investment growth in April skidded to its slowest pace since 2002.

Retail sales, an imperfect proxy for consumer spending, grew by an anemic 11.9%, the slowest pace in three years. That adds up to a second quarter that is decelerating from an already sluggish first quarter, in which gross domestic product growth was 7.4%.

A bigger concern is that those GDP figures underestimate inflation, resulting in an exaggeration of real growth. Citigroup economist Minggao Shen says there is 'consistent evidence' that growth fell to as low as 6% in the first quarter.

He points to the government's GDP deflator, the number used to adjust nominal growth to the change in prices. The deflator has recently deviated from other measures of inflation, he says. This is at odds with a broader shift in China's growth makeup from manufacturing to services. The latter tends to experience faster price increases.

Whatever the true rate of growth, the Communist Party sees job creation as the ultimate measure of its ability to stay in power. The official unemployment rate has barely fluctuated in years and is widely ignored, as it only captures a slice of the workforce. Other measures show some parts of the labor market holding up. Online job advertisements in April were 81% higher than a year earlier, according to Zhaopin.com, a major online recruitment firm.

But employment may not hold up as the property market hits the rocks, given the mass of jobs it supports from construction workers to real-estate agents. Last week, Beijing pledged yet again to speed up construction of affordable housing, a signal the government sees a need to prop up this crucial sector. On Tuesday, the country's central bank urged more lending support for first-time home buyers.

Chinese policy makers have telegraphed for some time that slower growth is an inevitable part of its effort to reform the economy. Investors shouldn't be surprised by that. The question now is, exactly how slow is too slow?

随着中国经济增长放缓的势头还在持续,投资者应该会担心中国经济形势甚至比看到的还要糟糕。

中国政府公布的4月份数据描绘了一幅黯淡的情景,非常重要的房地产行业的放缓势头最为明显。今年前4个月住房销售同比减少了10%。建筑开工下滑了近25%。4月份的固定资产投资增长率降至2002年以来最低水平。

可以从一定程度上显示消费者支出情况的零售额温和增长了11.9%,为三年来最低增幅。这意味着第二季度的国内生产总值(GDP)增幅将比本已较为低迷的第一季度进一步放缓。第一季度GDP增长了7.4%。

更令人担心的是上述GDP数据低估了通胀影响,导致实际增长率被夸大。花旗(Citigroup)经济学家沈明高表示,有一致的证据显示第一季度GDP增幅降至6%的低点。

他提到了中国政府的GDP平减指数(用以调整名义增速、反应物价变动的指数)。他说,近来GDP平减指数偏离了其他通胀指标。这不符合中国从制造业到服务业增长状况整体转变的情况,后者对应的趋势应该是物价增长更快。

无论实际增速如何,中共都把创造就业视为衡量执政能力的终极指标。近些年来,官方公布的失业率鲜有波动,且被普遍忽视,因为它仅仅囊括了劳动力大军的一小部分。其他指标则显示就业市场的某些部分欣欣向荣。根据大型网上招聘公司智联招聘(Zhaopin.com)的数据,今年4月份,网络上的职位广告较上年同期增加了81%。

不过,随着房地产市场触礁,就业形势可能无法保持繁荣,因为房地产行业创造了建筑工人、不动产经纪人等大量就业岗位。上周中国政府再次承诺要加快保障性住房的建设速度,暗示出政府认为有必要提振这一重要领域。周二,中国央行敦促向首次购房者提供更多借贷援助。

中国决策者们曾经表示,在经济改革的进程中,增速放缓是不可避免的。投资者们不应为此大惊小怪。现在的问题是,增速多慢才算得上是“太慢”?

本文关键字:双语阅读,小艾英语,双语网站,双语中国,实时资讯,互联网新闻,ERWAS,行业解析,创业指导,营销策略,英语学习,可以双语阅读的网站!
  • 我的微信
  • 扫一扫加关注
  • weinxin
  • 微信公众号
  • 扫一扫加关注
  • weinxin

发表评论

:?: :razz: :sad: :evil: :!: :smile: :oops: :grin: :eek: :shock: :???: :cool: :lol: :mad: :twisted: :roll: :wink: :idea: :arrow: :neutral: :cry: :mrgreen: