【英语中国】中国楼市泡沫 美银既唱好又唱衰 Bank of America vs. Bank of America on China Property Bubble

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2014-5-15 08:26

小艾摘要: Is China's residential real-estate market really a big problem for the country's economy? Bank of America says no, and Bank of America says yes. A 2:38 p.m. note from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wh ...
Bank of America vs. Bank of America on China Property Bubble
Is China's residential real-estate market really a big problem for the country's economy?

Bank of America says no, and Bank of America says yes.

A 2:38 p.m. note from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which it called a 'China Economic Watch' said 'in contrast to the popular view of oversupply in urban homes, we don't think there is a massive investment problem. We do not believe there will be a big crash, and we don't expect a financial meltdown or a hard landing in GDP growth.'

So far, so good for the Chinese economy.

But then, a 5:08 p.m. note from the bank labeled 'China, An Equity Strategist's Diary,' argued the opposite.

'China has most likely significantly overbuilt with per capita living space already among the highest in the world,' the note said.

'What will prompt us to change our negative view on the market is if the government undertakes drastic measures to write off debts, recap the financial system, reduce interest rates (possibly devalue CNY) and shut down excessive capacities, so the corporate sector can earn their way back.'

A spokesman for Bank of America said that the don't-worry view is from the bank's macroeconomic team while the do-worry view is from the corporate-strategy team. 'These two have been known to take different views,' the spokesman said. 'It's our effort to give a 360- (degree) view.'

Reuters安徽合肥,一名拾荒者从一处在建商住两用建筑工地旁走过。
对中国经济来说,住宅市场是个大问题吗?

美国银行(Bank of America)先说“否”,又说“是”。

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)下午2:38发布的《中国经济观察》(China Economic Watch)报告说:“外界普遍认为城市住房供应过剩,而我们却认为没有大的投资问题。我们认为不会出现大崩溃,我们预计不会出现金融海啸,国内生产总值(GDP)增长不会出现硬着陆。”

听起来,美银美林对中国经济比较乐观。

但下午5:08,美银美林又发布了一份题为《中国,一个股市策略师的日记》(China, An Equity Strategist's Diary)的报告,其阐述的观点与之前的那份报告截然相反。

这篇报告说:“中国很可能存在建设严重过度的问题,人均居住面积已经处于全球最高之列。”

报告称:“能够让我们改变负面观点的条件是:政府大刀阔斧地冲销债务,改革金融体系,下调利率(可能导致人民币贬值),关停过剩产能,推动企业利润增长、让企业恢复元气。”

美国银行发言人表示,“不必担心”的观点来自其宏观经济团队,而“需要担心”的观点来自其战略团队。该发言人说,众所周知,这两个部门一向持不同看法。发言人还表示,他们一直在努力给出360度的全面分析。

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