【英语中国】5月中国PMI指数继续回升 China manufacturing picks up in May

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2014-6-3 07:32

小艾摘要: Chinese manufacturing activity picked up in May as a series of government stimulus measures appeared to be taking effect.Beijing has rolled out several pro-growth policies in recent months as the worl ...
China manufacturing picks up in May
Chinese manufacturing activity picked up in May as a series of government stimulus measures appeared to be taking effect.

Beijing has rolled out several pro-growth policies in recent months as the world’s second-largest economy has shown signs of stalling after years of rapid expansion.

China’s official purchasing managers’ index, an indicator of the health of large industrial companies, came in at 50.8 in May, the highest reading this year and up from 50.4 in April.

“The continued improvement in May’s PMI shows that signs of economic recovery are becoming more obvious,” said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which publishes the data with the National Bureau of Statistics.

An alternative index published by HSBC and focusing more on smaller, private companies also showed an improvement in manufacturing sentiment last month, with a preliminary reading of 49.7 in May, compared with 48.1 in April.

Although it was still below a reading of 50 that indicates the difference between contraction and expansion in the sector, it was also the highest reading so far this year.

China’s economy is looking weaker than at any time since the global financial crisis, as a heavy debt load, weak global demand, overcapacity and bursting real estate bubbles all weigh on growth.

Of particular concern is the slowdown in the Chinese real estate market, which has been the key driver of the economy over the past decade but which has created bubbles in parts of the country.

Average prices for new homes fell in May from the previous month – the first contraction in nearly two years – according to data provider China Real Estate Index System.

Gross domestic product grew 7.4 per cent from a year earlier in the first quarter, the slowest pace in a year and a half and down from 7.7 per cent expansion in the fourth quarter last year.

Even if the economy does meet the government’s target of 7.5 per cent growth this year that will still be the slowest pace since 1990, when the country was still facing international sanctions in the wake of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

Liu Ligang, chief China economist at ANZ bank, said: “The improvement of both PMIs suggests that the economic activities have stabilised somewhat due to the recent pro-growth policies.” But “in our view, these targeted ‘mini stimulus’ measures are not sufficient to prevent sentiment from deteriorating again.”

随着政府一系列刺激措施已产生效果,5月中国制造业活动有所回升。

由于该全球第二大经济体在多年快速扩张之后呈现放缓迹象,中国政府在过去几个月已实施了多项保增长政策。

5月份,中国官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为50.8,高于4月的50.4,为今年以来最高值。官方PMI是一项衡量大型工业企业健康程度的指标。

中国物流与采购联合会(CFLP)研究员张立群表示:“5月PMI数据继续改善表明,经济复苏的迹象已更趋明显。”中国物流与采购联合会负责与中国国家统计局(NBS)联合发布PMI数据。

5月份,更关注中小型私人企业的汇丰(HSBC)制造业PMI预览值为49.7,高于4月份的48.1,同样表明5月制造业信心有所上升。

尽管汇丰PMI仍低于制造业荣枯分界线50,但也已达到今年迄今的最高水平。

目前,中国经济呈现出全球金融危机以来最弱的态势,因为债务负担沉重、全球需求萎靡、产能过剩以及房地产泡沫可能即将破灭,对增长构成了重压。

尤其令人担忧的是中国房地产市场出现放缓,房市在过去10年里一直是中国经济增长的关键推动力,但在国内部分地区已产生泡沫。

中国房地产指数系统(CREIS)提供的数据显示,今年5月,新房平均售价较上月有所下降,为近两年来的首次下降。

今年1季度,中国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长7.4%,为一年半内的最慢增速,低于去年4季度7.7%的增速。

即便当前经济增速基本接近政府为今年制定的7.5%的增长目标,但这仍是自1990年以来的最低增速。1990年时,中国仍在因1989年天安门广场事件而遭受国际制裁。

澳新银行(ANZ Bank)首席中国经济学家刘利刚表示:“两项PMI都在回升表明,多少由于近来的保增长政策,经济活动已经企稳。”但是,“我们认为,这些定向的‘微刺激’措施尚不足以防止信心再度下降。”

译者/邢嵬

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