【英语中国】中国5月出口增长但进口意外下跌 Rising exports boost China surplus

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2014-6-9 21:48

小艾摘要: China’s trade surplus soared in May as exports were lifted by a strengthening global economy, but imports fell unexpectedly.Official data showed yesterday that the trade surplus had expanded to $36bn ...
Rising exports boost China surplus
China’s trade surplus soared in May as exports were lifted by a strengthening global economy, but imports fell unexpectedly.

Official data showed yesterday that the trade surplus had expanded to $36bn from $20.4bn a year ago as exports grew 7 per cent from May last year.

According to the General Administration of Customs, exports easily topped market expectations, but imports were much weaker than forecast, declining 1.6 per cent from May 2013.

Zheng Yuesheng, a customs official, told state media the data showed that export growth had “returned to normal”.

Earlier this year, comparisons were complicated by the fact that exports had been artificially inflated last year as companies used fake invoices to circumvent currency controls.

“We do not think the May trade data will change the policy stance significantly,” said Louis Kuijs, China economist at RBS.

“While the export data are reasonably positive, the weakness of domestic demand implied by the import data may keep the pressure up for initiatives to support growth.”

He expected Beijing to announce “measures to support growth while refraining from more major, general stimulus steps”.

Li Keqiang, Chinese premier, warned officials on Friday not to overlook economic challenges, saying that downward pressure on the economy was “relatively high”.

State media quoted him as saying: “To achieve the development goals for 2014 we should better mobilise efforts from both the central and local authorities.”

In the first quarter of 2014 the economy expanded 7.4 per cent from the same period last year, a slowdown from the 7.7 per cent growth in the final quarter of last year. Growth was the slowest since the third quarter of 2012.

The International Monetary Fund last week cut its economic growth forecast for China because of concerns about the property market and a build-up of credit. The IMF said it expected the Chinese economy to grow at 7 per cent or lower next year, compared with its previous estimate of 7.3 per cent.

ANZ bank said the improved export numbers were a result of supportive government policies coupled with stronger demand from advanced economies.

While Mr Kuijs suggested that the unexpected fall in imports was caused by “slow growth of demand in China’s economy”, ANZ said it was probably “due to the recent crackdown on using commodities as collateral to finance deals”.

Xinhua, the state-run news agency, has reported that authorities at Qingdao, the third-largest port in China, have launched an investigation into whether commodities traders had used fake warehouse receipts to help raise finance from banks.

中国5月贸易顺差猛增,出口受到全球经济转强的提振,但进口意外下跌。

昨日发布的官方数据显示,今年5月份,贸易顺差从去年同期的204亿美元扩大至360亿美元,出口同比增长7%。

根据中国海关总署的数据,出口轻松突破市场预期,但进口较预期疲弱得多,相比2013年5月水平下降1.6%。

海关总署新闻发言人郑跃生对官方媒体表示,这些数据显示,出口增长已恢复正常。

今年早些时候的年度对比遭遇一个复杂因素,因为去年的出口被人为抬高,原因是企业通过虚开发票来规避外汇管制。

“我们不认为5月的贸易数据将显著改变政策姿态,”苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)中国经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示。

“尽管出口数据是比较积极的,但进口数据反映出的国内需求疲弱可能保持压力,要求政府采取措施支持经济增长。”

他预计北京方面将宣布“支持经济增长的措施,同时避免采取更为重大、一般化的刺激步骤”。

中国总理李克强上周五警告官员们不要忽视经济挑战,称经济下行压力“仍然较大”。

官方媒体援引他的话表示:“完成今年经济社会发展主要目标任务,必须更好地发挥中央和地方两个积极性。”

2014年第一季度,中国经济同比增长7.4%,相比去年末季7.7%的同比增幅有所放缓,并且是自2012年第三季度以来最慢的。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)上周下调了其对中国经济增长的预测,理由是对中国房地产市场和信贷累积感到担忧。IMF表示,预计中国经济明年将增长7%或更低,而此前预测的增幅为7.3%。

澳新银行(ANZ bank)表示,中国出口出现起色,是政府扶持政策和发达经济体需求转强的结果。

尽管高路易提出,进口意外下降的起因是“中国经济需求增长缓慢”,但澳新银行表示,这一现象很可能是“由于近期打击利用大宗商品作为抵押品为交易融资的做法”。

据官方的新华社报道,在中国第三大港口青岛,有关部门正在调查大宗商品交易商是否曾将仓单用于重复质押,从不同银行骗取贷款。

译者/和风

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