【英语中国】中国金属融资调查冲击波 Sparks start to fly from China’s metal probe

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所属分类:双语中国

2014-6-13 14:58

小艾摘要: The port city in northeastern China is famous for its Tsingtao brewery that was founded more than a century ago with 400,000 Mexican silver dollars as capital. But in recent years, Qingdao – the beer ...
Sparks start to fly from China’s metal probe
The port city in northeastern China is famous for its Tsingtao brewery that was founded more than a century ago with 400,000 Mexican silver dollars as capital. But in recent years, Qingdao – the beer’s name uses an older spelling – has been attracting other types of metal. As Chinese traders’ appetite for cheap forex funding has increased, piles of copper and aluminium used as loan collateral have accumulated in dockside warehouses.

But at the end of May, Qingdao’s metal stacks started to wobble. Local authorities began investigating whether a Chinese company had pledged the same lots of material to several banks – the equivalent of a homeowner taking out multiple loans for a house while telling each lender they were the only one. With potential losses running into hundreds of millions of dollars, banks and traders scrambled to assess their positions. Standard Bank and Standard Chartered Bank said they were investigating their exposure, while China’s CITIC Resources, asked courts in Qingdao to secure its metal held at Qingdao Port.

“Everybody has been going through their receipts with magnifying glasses and heading to warehouses to look for their metal,” says Vivienne Lloyd, an analyst at Macquarie.

The ripples quickly spread far beyond Qingdao. The London Metal Exchange price of three-month copper, already down 5 per cent for the year, has dropped 4 per cent since the start of last week, to $6,650 a tonne yesterday. New financing deals for copper and other metals in China have dried up.

Commodity traders, banks, financiers and analysts were left pondering a number of questions. Was this alleged financial fraud an isolated case or are other Chinese companies and ports also involved? Will the market be flooded with copper exiting warehouses, putting further pressure on prices? And what might the long term effect be for Chinese metals financing deals, an important part of the shadow banking sector in the country?

Two weeks on, and the investigation at Qingdao still appears to centre on a single group of companies owned by Dezheng Resources, which operates aluminium smelters, power plants and coal mines. Dezheng is reported to own up to 20,000 tonnes of copper and 100,000 tonnes of alumina at Dagang, an older docking area within Qingdao Port.

“The market is still uncertain [about the Qingdao implications],” David Lilley, co-founder of Red Kite, a metals-focused hedge fund and trader, said at a derivatives conference in London this week. “I am somewhat reassured by the fact that?.?.?.?no other area, no other problem has been uncovered.”

Qingdao has not traditionally been a hub for metals financing, but stocks built up rapidly this year. By the end of May, nearly 100,000 tonnes of copper – about 60 per cent of the copper inventories in London Metal Exchange sheds globally – was stockpiled in Qingdao, according to Macquarie. Even so, stocks elsewhere in China are much higher, with bonded warehouse districts in Shanghai holding about 800,000 tonnes of copper. Traders say that facilities at Shanghai and at other Chinese ports are organised and operated to global -standards, often by intern-ational logistics companies.

For this reason, Macquarie says it “doubts that many more, if any, scandals will be uncovered”. Bank of America Merill Lynch was less sure, noting that issuing multiple warehouse receipts for the same tonne of metal was a known issue in China, though it concluded that “copper’s Waterloo is not in Qingdao”. Meanwhile, Doug King, chief investment officer of RCMA Capital, which runs a commodity fund, said this week that he expected the Chinese financing probe to be extended to iron ore and soyabeans.

Fund managers and analysts agree that the Qingdao investigation will have an effect on commodity financing deals in the short term. Goldman Sachs said it expected foreign banks to continue scaling down its collateralised lending businesses in China. As a result, less metal will flow into bonded warehouses, and some of the stocks already there will be shifted.

Macquarie estimates that, due to the lending squeeze, about 290,000 tonnes of copper in Chinese bonded warehouses will be moved, mostly to LME warehouses, either on or off-exchange. But it expects a floor of about 600,000 tonnes of copper to stay in bonded facilities, as part of the established metal-financing transit trade run that is run by large importers and eventually feeds local factories.

“These schemes have been an integral part of the Chinese copper market for some time,” says Nic Brown, head of commodities research at Natixis.

Dezheng could not be reached for comment.

地处中国东北的港口城市青岛,因青岛啤酒(Tsingtao Beer)而闻名。该厂创办于100多年前,当时的本金是40万墨西哥银元。不过近年来,青岛市一直在吸引着其他种类的金属。随着中国交易商对廉价外汇融资的兴趣上升,被用作贷款抵押物的铜和铝在青岛港码头的仓库中不断堆积起来。

但在今年5月底,青岛的金属库存规模出现了异常波动。当地主管部门开始调查一家中资公司是否用同一批金属向多家银行重复抵押——这相当于一位房主以同一栋房子抵押借入多笔贷款,却告诉每一个借款方自己只向他们借了钱。由于潜在损失可能高达数亿美元,银行和交易商急忙开始评估自己所持的头寸。南非标准银行(Standard Bank)和渣打银行(Standard Chartered)均表示正在评估自己的风险敞口,而中国的中信资源(Citic Resources)则向青岛法院申请查封其存放在青岛港的金属。

麦格理(Macquarie)分析师薇薇恩?劳埃德(Vivienne Lloyd)表示:“每个人都拿着放大镜仔细检查自己的仓单,然后去往仓库查看自己的金属库存。”

事件迅速波及到远离青岛的地区。伦敦金属交易所(LME)3个月期铜价格自上周初以来下跌4%,昨日报每吨6650美元。此前该合约自年初起已累计下跌5%。在中国国内,以铜和其他金属做抵押的融资交易已经枯竭。

大宗商品交易商、银行、金融家和分析师们开始思考摆在眼前的一系列问题。这起所谓的金融欺诈是一个孤立案例,还是牵扯到了其他中国企业和港口?是否会有大量的铜流出仓库、涌入市场,进一步打压铜价?作为中国影子银行体系的一个重要组成部分,中国金属融资交易在长期内将受到什么影响?

青岛的调查已持续两周,重点似乎仍放在德正资源控股有限公司(Dezheng Resources,简称德正资源)下属的若干企业身上。德正资源主要经营铝熔炼厂、电厂以及煤矿。据报道,德正资源在青岛大港存有2万吨铜和1万吨铝。大港是青岛港历史较久的一个码头区。

专注于金属业务的对冲基金及交易商Red Kite的联合创始人戴维?利利(David Lilley)本周在伦敦某衍生品会议上说:“市场仍不确定青岛事件会带来什么影响。让我稍感安心的是……目前为止尚未发现其他地区存在问题,也没有发现新的问题。”

青岛并不是传统上的金属融资中心,但今年以来当地的金属库存快速膨胀。来自麦格理的数据显示,截至5月底时有近10万吨铜储存在青岛,约占LME注册仓库全球铜库存的60%。不过中国其他一些地方的金属库存规模比青岛还要大得多,上海保税区的仓库中就存有约80万吨铜。交易商们表示,上海及其他中国港口的设施是按照国际标准管理和运营的,运营方通常是国际物流公司。

正因为其他港口的库存更多,麦格理表示“怀疑未来还将有更多丑闻曝光”。美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的看法则没这么肯定,指出为同一批金属签发多张仓单的事情在中国已不是秘密,不过该行判断“铜的滑铁卢不在青岛”。RCMA Capital的首席投资官道格?金(Doug King)本周表示,他预计中国的融资调查范围将扩大到铁矿石和大豆。RCMA Capital管理着一只大宗商品基金。

基金经理和分析师们一致认为,青岛的调查在短期内将对大宗商品融资交易产生影响。高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计外资银行将继续收缩在中国的抵押贷款业务。受此影响,流入保税仓库的金属数量将减少,而且现有的部分库存将被转移。

麦格理估计,受贷款收紧影响,中国保税仓库中大约将有29万吨铜被转移,大部分将流入LME仓库,不论是通过场内还是场外交易。但麦格理预计,最少约有60万吨铜将继续留存在中国的保税仓库中,因为有一部分金属融资转口贸易是由大型进口商运作的,并且最终将被用于为中国本土工厂提供原料。

法国外贸银行(Natixis)大宗商品研究主管尼克?布朗( Nic Brown)表示:“这种交易模式在中国铜市场上已存在一段时间了。”

他说:“只要不再有重复抵押行为,金属融资在将来还会继续存在。”

记者未能联系到德正资源发表评论。

译者/马拉

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