【英语中国】中国出境游人数“十年内将翻番” No. of Chinese going abroad “to hit 202m a year”

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2014-7-1 01:12

小艾摘要: Here is a prediction to warm the hearts of luxury retailers.The number of Chinese travelling abroad each year is set to more than double to at least 202m in the next decade, according to HSBC.The bank ...
No. of Chinese going abroad "to hit 202m a year"
Here is a prediction to warm the hearts of luxury retailers.

The number of Chinese travelling abroad each year is set to more than double to at least 202m in the next decade, according to HSBC.

The bank's chief Asia economist Frederic Neumann forecasts that, despite China's current economic slowdown,“We've barely scratched the surface, with the equivalent of 7.1% of the population travelling overseas last year, roughly the same share as Japanese in 1989 and Koreans in 1995. ”

Chinese travellers prefer to stay close to home, Mr Neumann writes. The below chart from HSBC shows how Chinese tourists are driving a boom in regional travel.

He adds: “Even if construction and industry cool further, this trend will likely stay uninterrupted. Strong income gains and the unquenched desire to explore the world will lead many more Chinese to book trips. ”

The analyst is basing his forecasts on how overseas tourism developed in Japan.

He writes: “On the current trajectory, the Chinese outbound ratio will catch up with that of Japan in only seven years. However, we expect growth to moderate slightly over coming years, stretching the process out to 2023.”

There is an economic angle here too. As Mr Neumann explains: “Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines will probably experience especially robust growth in arrivals, with an attendant boost to their current account balances.”

汇丰银行(HSBC)预测,未来十年间,中国年度出境游人数将增长不止一倍,达到至少2.02亿人次。这对奢侈品零售商来说是个好消息。

汇丰银行首席亚洲经济学家范力民(Frederic Neumann)预计,尽管中国经济有所放缓,“中国人出境游还只是刚刚起步。去年中国出境旅游人数只占中国人口的7.1%,这个比例差不多只相当于日本1989年的比例和韩国1995年的比例”。

范力民写道,中国游客更愿意选择中国附近地区。汇丰制作的下张图表显示出中国游客如何带动了亚洲旅游业的繁荣。

他补充说:“就算是建筑业和工业进一步降温,这一趋势也很可能会保持下去。强劲的收入增长和对世界不可抑制的探索欲,将驱使更多中国人走出国门。”

这位分析师还用日本出境旅游的发展来佐证他的预测。

他写道:“如以现有趋势判断,中国出境游人数占人口比例只要7年就能赶上日本。不过,我们预计今后几年增长速度会略微回调,从而令这一赶超延迟至2023年。”

范力民还从经济角度对此作出了评价。他解释说:“出访泰国、台湾、新加坡、印尼和菲律宾的人数可能会有特别强劲的增长,这也会一并提升他们的经常项目盈余。”

译者/简易

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