【英语中国】中国二季度GDP增速回升至7.5% China’s second-quarter GDP rises 7.5%

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2014-7-16 13:10

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China’s second-quarter GDP rises 7.5%
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China’s economy expanded by 7.5 per cent in the second quarter, accelerating slightly from the first quarter and improving the government’s chances of realising its target of 7.5 per cent growth for the full year.

The figure, which exceeded consensus estimates of 7.4 per cent, show that the government’s “mini-stimulus” measures have gained some purchase.

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China’s leadership had said it was willing to tolerate slower rates of growth to achieve structural reform, but seems to have blinked when the economy grew by the slowest rate in 18 months in the first quarter, at 7.4 per cent.

Economists have warned that supporting short-term growth could come at the expense of continuing China’s reliance on state-backed investment and adding to its worrying debt load.

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Other data also pointed to stabilising growth. Industrial production, a key driver of China’s economy, rose by 9.2 per cent in June, the strongest pace since December, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Fixed asset investment grew at 17.3 per cent year-on-year in the first half of the year, up from 17.2 per cent in the five months to May. Real estate investment continued to suffer, however, with growth slowing to 14.1 per cent in the first half from 14.7 per cent in the first five months. The resilience of overall investment even in the face of falling property investment suggests that state-backed projects have helped to fill the gap.

Chinese bank loans and other forms of credit grew at their fastest pace for three months in June, according to data released on Tuesday, in a sign that authorities have opened the credit taps in a bid to stabilise a slowing economy, while potentially backsliding on efforts to curb excessive debt.

As it reverts to tried-and-true methods for stimulating growth, the Chinese government has also fallen back on its decades-long practice of setting absolute targets.

Reformers had taken heart from earlier statements by premier Li Keqiang that Beijing would allow flexibility in the targets, which appeared to signal a greater willingness for the economy to find its own equilibrium, but a specific GDP target has since returned to the focus.

Additional reporting by Gabriel Wildau in Shanghai

今年第二季度,中国经济增长7.5%,略高于第一季度,这提高了中国政府实现7.5%的全年增长目标的可能性,此前统机构的预期为增长7.4%。这一数据表明,中国政府的“微刺激”举措取得了一些成效。

中国领导层曾表示,愿意容忍较低的经济增速,以实现结构改革,但当今年第一季度中国经济增速放慢至7.4%,触及18个月最低水平时,中国政府似乎改变了主意。

经济学家警告称,支持短期增长可能会让中国付出代价——中国将会继续依赖于政府支持的投资并令债务担忧增加。

PNC Financial Services Group经济学家比尔?亚当斯(Bill Adams)写道,尽管GDP可能符合目标,但增长质量不容乐观。

“中国第12个五年计划中的关键经济政策承诺——私营行业的更‘决定性’作用并没有体现在第二季度的数据中。”

“投资占GDP的比例越来越受到贷款的支持,而非企业留存收益或企业家存款。”

其他数据也指向经济增长趋稳。国家统计局的数据显示,今年6月,推动中国经济的主要因素——规模以上工业增加值同比增长9.2%,为自去年12月以来最快。

今年上半年,固定资产投资同比增长17.3%,高于头5个月的17.2%。然而,房地产投资继续放缓,今年头5个月增速为14.7%,而上半年增速已放缓至14.1%。尽管房地产投资呈现下滑趋势,但总体投资仍颇具弹性,这一迹象表明政府支持的项目帮助弥补了这一缺口。

根据周二公布的数据,中国6月新增贷款为3个月最快,这一迹象表明,为了稳定日益放缓的经济,政府已开启信贷闸门,而控制债务过快增长的举措可能正出现倒退。

今年早些时候,中国的改革派们曾因中国总理李克强对经济增长目标的言论颇受鼓励,因为目标灵活似乎表明北京方面更愿意让经济回归自身的发展规律,但具体的GDP发展目标目前似乎又重新成为了关注点。

加布里埃尔?威尔道(Gabriel Wildau)上海补充报道

译者/梁艳裳

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